All signals with real odds
8.9%
- Staked
- 116u
- Returned
- 126.32u
- P/L
- +10.32u
18+ · Statistical history does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly.
Transparency · recorded results
Model performance
Tracking of predictions and tickets actually persisted before kick-off. No match before the start of this record is reconstructed.
Live record · Premier League
Production history started on
The first prediction was persisted on . Settlement begins with matches on ; matches completed before recording began do not enter this panel and appear only in the separate chronological backtest.
Live performance
Validated signals
Markets approved specifically for Premier League; the complementary 1X2 view is excluded from these indicators.
- Evaluated sample
- 150
- Wins / losses
- 105/45
- Hit rate
- 70.0%
- Brier score
- 0.174
0 push · 0 void
Objective outcome by market
n=150
Lower is better · n=150
By-market view
Where the model is being evaluated
| Scope | Sample | W | L | Rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X | 30 | 20 | 10 | 66.7% | 0.205 |
| Double chance X2 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 73.3% | 0.192 |
| Over 20.5 shots | 30 | 30 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.032 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30 | 12 | 18 | 40.0% | 0.239 |
| Away team to score 1+ goals | 30 | 21 | 9 | 70.0% | 0.203 |
Auditable simulation
ROI with a theoretical 1-unit stake
Calculated only when real odds had been persisted before the match. This is a historical simulation, not an executed bet, guaranteed profit or financial recommendation.
n=116
Possible value only
—
- Staked
- 7u
- Returned
- 12.26u
- P/L
- +5.26u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
Double chance 1X
-6.0%
- Staked
- 30u
- Returned
- 28.2u
- P/L
- -1.8u
Double chance X2
34.4%
- Staked
- 30u
- Returned
- 40.33u
- P/L
- +10.33u
Away team to score 1+ goals
-4.4%
- Staked
- 30u
- Returned
- 28.68u
- P/L
- -1.32u
Over 4.5 yellow cards
10.8%
- Staked
- 24u
- Returned
- 26.59u
- P/L
- +2.59u
Over 20.5 shots
—
- Staked
- 2u
- Returned
- 2.52u
- P/L
- +0.52u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
Probability × occurrence
Calibration by band
Compares average predicted probability with observed frequency, always showing sample size.
20–40%
n=26Predicted33.5%
Observed34.6%
40–60%
n=34Predicted50.4%
Observed61.8%
60–80%
n=57Predicted71.6%
Observed77.2%
80–100%
n=33Predicted85.9%
Observed93.9%
Tickets actually generated
Performance by profile
Each ticket retains the selections and combined odds recorded at generation time. 10 are awaiting results.
Generated tickets
781.4%
- Staked
- 37u
- Returned
- 326.13u
- P/L
- +289.13u
Balanced
—
- Staked
- 12u
- Returned
- 78.86u
- P/L
- +66.86u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
Aggressive
—
- Staked
- 16u
- Returned
- 230.14u
- P/L
- +214.14u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
Conservative
—
- Staked
- 9u
- Returned
- 17.12u
- P/L
- +8.12u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
By number of selections
2 selections
212.4%
- Staked
- 20u
- Returned
- 62.48u
- P/L
- +42.48u
4 selections
—
- Staked
- 6u
- Returned
- 100.32u
- P/L
- +94.32u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
3 selections
—
- Staked
- 8u
- Returned
- 44.56u
- P/L
- +36.56u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
5 selections
—
- Staked
- 3u
- Returned
- 118.77u
- P/L
- +115.77u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
| Profile | Selections | Recorded odds | Outcome | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2 | 3.07 | Win | +2.07u |
| Balanced | 2 | 3.31 | Loss | -1u |
| Conservative | 2 | 3.42 | Win | +2.42u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.11 | Win | +4.11u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.11 | Win | +4.11u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 3.99 | Loss | -1u |
| Balanced | 2 | 2.89 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.30 | Win | +4.3u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.33 | Win | +4.33u |
| Conservative | 2 | 2.53 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 4 | 17.14 | Win | +16.14u |
| Balanced | 2 | 4.05 | Win | +3.05u |
Latest settlements
Recorded results
Fulham × Manchester United
· Double chance 1X
Winp=47.1% · odd 1.85
Fulham × Manchester United
· Double chance X2
Winp=76.1% · odd 1.34
Fulham × Manchester United
· Shots over 20.5
Winp=91.8% · odd —
Fulham × Manchester United
· Cards over 4.5
Lossp=31.0% · odd 3.76
Fulham × Manchester United
· Away-team goals over 0.5
Winp=84.0% · odd 1.15
Bournemouth × Liverpool
· Shots over 20.5
Winp=87.7% · odd —
Bournemouth × Liverpool
· Double chance 1X
Lossp=62.8% · odd 1.73
Manchester City × Sunderland
· Double chance 1X
Winp=86.6% · odd 1.10
Manchester City × Sunderland
· Cards over 4.5
Lossp=36.1% · odd 2.83
Bournemouth × Liverpool
· Cards over 4.5
Lossp=49.9% · odd 3.28
Manchester City × Sunderland
· Away-team goals over 0.5
Winp=54.8% · odd 1.75
Bournemouth × Liverpool
· Double chance X2
Winp=61.8% · odd 1.40
Separate study · Premier League
Chronological historical backtest
Walk-forward with 320 tested matches, a minimum training set of 80 matches and 0 temporal leakage violations. It is not added to live performance.
View backtest metrics
| Market | n | Rate | Brier | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away team to score 1+ goals | 320 | 72.8% | 0.194 | 0.201 |
| Double chance 1X | 320 | 68.4% | 0.200 | 0.212 |
| Double chance X2 | 320 | 60.9% | 0.221 | 0.245 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 311 | 64.0% | 0.231 | 0.231 |
| Over 20.5 shots | 320 | 81.6% | 0.153 | 0.153 |
Methodology and responsibility
What this panel measures — and what it does not
A prediction enters live history only when persisted before kick-off. Settlement uses the final score and objective final statistics. Missing data results in a void; exact whole-number lines result in a push.
ROI is a simulation using a fixed 1-unit stake and recorded real pre-match odds. It does not account for limits, liquidity, taxes, later price changes or actual bet execution.
The history shows the past performance of RadarOnze estimates. Previous results do not guarantee future performance.