All signals with real odds
-3.6%
- Staked
- 215u
- Returned
- 207.22u
- P/L
- -7.78u
18+ · Statistical history does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly.
Transparency · recorded results
Model performance
Tracking of predictions and tickets actually persisted before kick-off. No match before the start of this record is reconstructed.
Live record · Brasileirão Série A
Production history started on
The first prediction was persisted on . Settlement begins with matches on ; matches completed before recording began do not enter this panel and appear only in the separate chronological backtest.
Live performance
Validated signals
Markets approved specifically for Brasileirão Série A; the complementary 1X2 view is excluded from these indicators.
- Evaluated sample
- 248
- Wins / losses
- 179/69
- Hit rate
- 72.2%
- Brier score
- 0.172
0 push · 0 void
Objective outcome by market
n=248
Lower is better · n=248
By-market view
Where the model is being evaluated
| Scope | Sample | W | L | Rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X | 31 | 20 | 11 | 64.5% | 0.212 |
| Double chance X2 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 54.8% | 0.215 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 31 | 29 | 2 | 93.6% | 0.062 |
| Over 20.5 shots | 31 | 28 | 3 | 90.3% | 0.084 |
| Over 3.5 yellow cards | 31 | 22 | 9 | 71.0% | 0.204 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31 | 16 | 15 | 51.6% | 0.238 |
| Over 6.5 shots on target | 31 | 26 | 5 | 83.9% | 0.133 |
| Away team to score 1+ goals | 31 | 21 | 10 | 67.7% | 0.225 |
Auditable simulation
ROI with a theoretical 1-unit stake
Calculated only when real odds had been persisted before the match. This is a historical simulation, not an executed bet, guaranteed profit or financial recommendation.
n=215
Possible value only
-3.5%
- Staked
- 27u
- Returned
- 26.06u
- P/L
- -0.94u
Double chance 1X
-14.4%
- Staked
- 31u
- Returned
- 26.55u
- P/L
- -4.45u
Double chance X2
-6.6%
- Staked
- 31u
- Returned
- 28.96u
- P/L
- -2.04u
Over 0.5 goals
0.3%
- Staked
- 31u
- Returned
- 31.08u
- P/L
- +0.08u
Away team to score 1+ goals
1.2%
- Staked
- 31u
- Returned
- 31.38u
- P/L
- +0.38u
Over 3.5 yellow cards
-3.4%
- Staked
- 30u
- Returned
- 28.98u
- P/L
- -1.02u
Over 4.5 yellow cards
-4.2%
- Staked
- 29u
- Returned
- 27.79u
- P/L
- -1.21u
Over 6.5 shots on target
3.7%
- Staked
- 22u
- Returned
- 22.82u
- P/L
- +0.82u
Over 20.5 shots
—
- Staked
- 10u
- Returned
- 9.66u
- P/L
- -0.34u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
Probability × occurrence
Calibration by band
Compares average predicted probability with observed frequency, always showing sample size.
20–40%
n=12Predicted—
Observed—
40–60%
n=56Predicted52.5%
Observed51.8%
60–80%
n=93Predicted70.4%
Observed73.1%
80–100%
n=87Predicted89.7%
Observed89.7%
Tickets actually generated
Performance by profile
Each ticket retains the selections and combined odds recorded at generation time. 13 are awaiting results.
Generated tickets
-27.9%
- Staked
- 108u
- Returned
- 77.84u
- P/L
- -30.16u
Aggressive
-62.6%
- Staked
- 42u
- Returned
- 15.73u
- P/L
- -26.27u
Balanced
13.6%
- Staked
- 36u
- Returned
- 40.89u
- P/L
- +4.89u
Conservative
-29.3%
- Staked
- 30u
- Returned
- 21.22u
- P/L
- -8.78u
By number of selections
2 selections
-25.0%
- Staked
- 50u
- Returned
- 37.5u
- P/L
- -12.5u
3 selections
-37.3%
- Staked
- 34u
- Returned
- 21.31u
- P/L
- -12.69u
4 selections
—
- Staked
- 17u
- Returned
- 19.03u
- P/L
- +2.03u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
5 selections
—
- Staked
- 7u
- Returned
- 0u
- P/L
- -7u
Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.
| Profile | Selections | Recorded odds | Outcome | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced | 2 | 1.99 | Win | +0.99u |
| Aggressive | 3 | 7.43 | Loss | -1u |
| Conservative | 2 | 1.99 | Win | +0.99u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.85 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.50 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 3 | 9.19 | Loss | -1u |
| Conservative | 2 | 2.62 | Loss | -1u |
| Balanced | 2 | 2.62 | Loss | -1u |
| Balanced | 3 | 5.08 | Loss | -1u |
| Conservative | 2 | 2.75 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 2 | 5.58 | Loss | -1u |
| Aggressive | 4 | 16.21 | Loss | -1u |
Latest settlements
Recorded results
Atletico Paranaense × Bahia
· Cards over 4.5
Winp=41.7% · odd 1.93
Sao Paulo × Internacional
· Goals over 0.5
Winp=91.6% · odd 1.11
Remo × Santos
· Away-team goals over 0.5
Winp=84.7% · odd 1.27
Mirassol × Botafogo
· Shots over 20.5
Winp=95.5% · odd 1.05
Vasco DA Gama × Coritiba
· Cards over 3.5
Lossp=54.6% · odd 1.60
Flamengo × RB Bragantino
· Double chance 1X
Winp=81.8% · odd 1.10
Gremio × Palmeiras
· Double chance X2
Winp=84.4% · odd 1.27
Flamengo × RB Bragantino
· Cards over 4.5
Winp=42.5% · odd 2.26
Mirassol × Botafogo
· Cards over 3.5
Lossp=76.1% · odd 1.31
Sao Paulo × Internacional
· Shots over 20.5
Lossp=78.0% · odd 1.10
Vasco DA Gama × Coritiba
· Away-team goals over 0.5
Lossp=77.4% · odd 1.75
Flamengo × RB Bragantino
· Goals over 0.5
Winp=92.5% · odd 1.03
Separate study · Brasileirão Série A
Chronological historical backtest
Walk-forward with 158 tested matches, a minimum training set of 80 matches and 0 temporal leakage violations. It is not added to live performance.
View backtest metrics
| Market | n | Rate | Brier | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 158 | 92.4% | 0.070 | 0.071 |
| Away team to score 1+ goals | 158 | 72.2% | 0.200 | 0.205 |
| Double chance 1X | 158 | 70.9% | 0.189 | 0.191 |
| Double chance X2 | 158 | 58.2% | 0.248 | 0.250 |
| Over 3.5 yellow cards | 155 | 65.8% | 0.218 | 0.230 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 155 | 55.5% | 0.241 | 0.254 |
| Over 20.5 shots | 158 | 87.3% | 0.105 | 0.112 |
| Over 6.5 shots on target | 158 | 77.9% | 0.167 | 0.174 |
Methodology and responsibility
What this panel measures — and what it does not
A prediction enters live history only when persisted before kick-off. Settlement uses the final score and objective final statistics. Missing data results in a void; exact whole-number lines result in a push.
ROI is a simulation using a fixed 1-unit stake and recorded real pre-match odds. It does not account for limits, liquidity, taxes, later price changes or actual bet execution.
The history shows the past performance of RadarOnze estimates. Previous results do not guarantee future performance.