18+ · Statistical history does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly.

Transparency · recorded results

Model performance

Tracking of predictions and tickets actually persisted before kick-off. No match before the start of this record is reconstructed.

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Live record · Champions League

Production history started on 7 Sept 2026

The first prediction was persisted on 7 Sept 2026, 17:05 · LONDON TIME. Settlement begins with matches on 8 Sept 2026; matches completed before recording began do not enter this panel and appear only in the separate chronological backtest.

radaronze-v1

Live performance

Validated signals

Markets approved specifically for Champions League; the complementary 1X2 view is excluded from these indicators.

Evaluated sample: 108
Wins / losses: 91/17
Hit rate: 84.3%
Brier score: 0.136

By-market view

Where the model is being evaluated

Scope	Sample	W	L	Rate	Brier
Both teams to score	18	13	5	—	—
Double chance 12	18	16	2	—	—
Over 0.5 goals	18	18	0	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	18	16	2	—	—
Home team to score 2+ goals	18	13	5	—	—
Away team to score 1+ goals	18	15	3	—	—

Auditable simulation

ROI with a theoretical 1-unit stake

Calculated only when real odds had been persisted before the match. This is a historical simulation, not an executed bet, guaranteed profit or financial recommendation.

All signals with real odds

9.3%

n=89

Staked: 89u
Returned: 97.23u
P/L: +8.23u

Possible value only

—

n=0

Staked: 0u
Returned: 0u
P/L: 0u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Double chance 12

—

n=18

Staked: 18u
Returned: 19.44u
P/L: +1.44u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Over 1.5 goals

—

n=18

Staked: 18u
Returned: 18.51u
P/L: +0.51u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Home team to score 2+ goals

—

n=18

Staked: 18u
Returned: 20u
P/L: +2u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Away team to score 1+ goals

—

n=18

Staked: 18u
Returned: 21.67u
P/L: +3.67u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Over 0.5 goals

—

n=17

Staked: 17u
Returned: 17.61u
P/L: +0.61u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Probability × occurrence

Calibration by band

Compares average predicted probability with observed frequency, always showing sample size.

20–40%

n=1

Predicted—

Observed—

40–60%

n=24

Predicted52.9%

Observed66.7%

60–80%

n=47

Predicted72.1%

Observed89.4%

80–100%

n=36

Predicted89.5%

Observed91.7%

Tickets actually generated

Performance by profile

Each ticket retains the selections and combined odds recorded at generation time. 0 are awaiting results.

Generated tickets

—

n=0

Staked: 0u
Returned: 0u
P/L: 0u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Latest settlements

Recorded results

Como × RB Leipzig

10 Sept 2026 · Both teams to score

Winp=57.8% · odd —

Slavia Praha × Lens

10 Sept 2026 · Double chance 12

Winp=75.6% · odd 1.33

Como × RB Leipzig

10 Sept 2026 · Goals over 0.5

Winp=95.0% · odd 1.03

Slavia Praha × Lens

10 Sept 2026 · Away-team goals over 0.5

Winp=73.9% · odd 1.25

Manchester United × Sabah FA

10 Sept 2026 · Both teams to score

Lossp=57.9% · odd —

Slavia Praha × Lens

10 Sept 2026 · Home-team goals over 1.5

Winp=40.9% · odd 2.25

Bayern Munich × Bodo/Glimt

10 Sept 2026 · Home-team goals over 1.5

Winp=72.1% · odd 1.12

Manchester United × Sabah FA

10 Sept 2026 · Goals over 0.5

Winp=95.2% · odd 1.01

Manchester United × Sabah FA

10 Sept 2026 · Away-team goals over 0.5

Lossp=83.2% · odd 1.96

Slavia Praha × Lens

10 Sept 2026 · Goals over 1.5

Winp=80.9% · odd 1.25

Bayern Munich × Bodo/Glimt

10 Sept 2026 · Goals over 1.5

Winp=92.3% · odd 1.03

Slavia Praha × Lens

10 Sept 2026 · Goals over 0.5

Winp=94.6% · odd 1.05

Separate study · Champions League

Chronological historical backtest

Walk-forward with 290 tested matches, a minimum training set of 80 matches and 0 temporal leakage violations. It is not added to live performance.

radaronze-v1

View backtest metrics

Market	n	Rate	Brier	Baseline
Away team to score 1+ goals	290	66.6%	0.222	0.223
Both teams to score — Sim	290	53.8%	0.249	0.252
Double chance 12	290	78.3%	0.171	0.171
Over 0.5 goals	290	94.1%	0.055	0.056
Over 1.5 goals	290	82.8%	0.142	0.150
Home team to score 2+ goals	290	54.8%	0.252	0.254

Methodology and responsibility

What this panel measures — and what it does not

A prediction enters live history only when persisted before kick-off. Settlement uses the final score and objective final statistics. Missing data results in a void; exact whole-number lines result in a push.

ROI is a simulation using a fixed 1-unit stake and recorded real pre-match odds. It does not account for limits, liquidity, taxes, later price changes or actual bet execution.

The history shows the past performance of RadarOnze estimates. Previous results do not guarantee future performance.