18+ · Statistical history does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly.

Transparency · recorded results

Model performance

Tracking of predictions and tickets actually persisted before kick-off. No match before the start of this record is reconstructed.

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Live record · Bundesliga

Production history started on 14 Sept 2026

The first prediction was persisted on 14 Sept 2026, 00:17 · LONDON TIME. Settlement begins with matches on 18 Sept 2026; matches completed before recording began do not enter this panel and appear only in the separate chronological backtest.

radaronze-v1

Live performance

Validated signals

Markets approved specifically for Bundesliga; the complementary 1X2 view is excluded from these indicators.

Evaluated sample: 63
Wins / losses: 48/15
Hit rate: 76.2%
Brier score: 0.173

By-market view

Where the model is being evaluated

Scope	Sample	W	L	Rate	Brier
Double chance 12	9	7	2	—	—
Double chance 1X	9	7	2	—	—
Double chance X2	9	4	5	—	—
Over 0.5 goals	9	8	1	—	—
Over 20.5 shots	9	9	0	—	—
Home team to score 2+ goals	9	7	2	—	—
Away team to score 1+ goals	9	6	3	—	—

Auditable simulation

ROI with a theoretical 1-unit stake

Calculated only when real odds had been persisted before the match. This is a historical simulation, not an executed bet, guaranteed profit or financial recommendation.

All signals with real odds

0.0%

n=54

Staked: 54u
Returned: 54.02u
P/L: +0.02u

Possible value only

—

n=6

Staked: 6u
Returned: 4.64u
P/L: -1.36u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Double chance 12

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 8.74u
P/L: -0.26u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Double chance 1X

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 10.54u
P/L: +1.54u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Double chance X2

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 6.51u
P/L: -2.49u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Over 0.5 goals

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 8.22u
P/L: -0.78u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Home team to score 2+ goals

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 12.98u
P/L: +3.98u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Away team to score 1+ goals

—

n=9

Staked: 9u
Returned: 7.03u
P/L: -1.97u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Probability × occurrence

Calibration by band

Compares average predicted probability with observed frequency, always showing sample size.

0–20%

n=1

Predicted—

Observed—

20–40%

n=4

Predicted—

Observed—

40–60%

n=12

Predicted—

Observed—

60–80%

n=17

Predicted—

Observed—

80–100%

n=29

Predicted90.4%

Observed89.7%

Tickets actually generated

Performance by profile

Each ticket retains the selections and combined odds recorded at generation time. 0 are awaiting results.

Generated tickets

—

n=6

Staked: 6u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -6u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Conservative

—

n=3

Staked: 3u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -3u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Balanced

—

n=3

Staked: 3u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -3u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

By number of selections

3 selections

—

n=2

Staked: 2u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -2u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

2 selections

—

n=2

Staked: 2u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -2u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

4 selections

—

n=2

Staked: 2u
Returned: 0u
P/L: -2u

Waiting for at least 20 settled records before highlighting ROI.

Profile	Selections	Recorded odds	Outcome	P/L
Conservative	3	3.71	Loss	-1u
Conservative	2	2.59	Loss	-1u
Balanced	3	4.20	Loss	-1u
Conservative	4	6.00	Loss	-1u
Balanced	4	6.00	Loss	-1u
Balanced	2	2.59	Loss	-1u

Latest settlements

Recorded results

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Goals over 0.5

Winp=93.0% · odd 1.03

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Home-team goals over 1.5

Winp=27.1% · odd 2.57

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Away-team goals over 0.5

Winp=80.1% · odd 1.09

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Double chance 12

Winp=74.4% · odd 1.24

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Double chance X2

Lossp=72.0% · odd 1.24

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Shots over 20.5

Winp=92.9% · odd —

SC Paderborn 07 × 1899 Hoffenheim

20 Sept 2026 · Double chance 1X

Winp=53.6% · odd 2.23

Schalke 04 × Elversberg

20 Sept 2026 · Away-team goals over 0.5

Lossp=84.2% · odd 1.27

Schalke 04 × Elversberg

20 Sept 2026 · Goals over 0.5

Lossp=95.7% · odd 1.03

Schalke 04 × Elversberg

20 Sept 2026 · Double chance X2

Winp=64.7% · odd 1.87

Schalke 04 × Elversberg

20 Sept 2026 · Double chance 1X

Winp=58.2% · odd 1.33

Schalke 04 × Elversberg

20 Sept 2026 · Shots over 20.5

Winp=94.2% · odd —

Separate study · Bundesliga

Chronological historical backtest

Walk-forward with 255 tested matches, a minimum training set of 80 matches and 0 temporal leakage violations. It is not added to live performance.

radaronze-v1

View backtest metrics

Market	n	Rate	Brier	Baseline
Away team to score 1+ goals	255	74.1%	0.183	0.189
Double chance 12	255	74.1%	0.194	0.194
Double chance 1X	255	71.0%	0.193	0.210
Double chance X2	255	66.7%	0.211	0.249
Over 0.5 goals	255	95.7%	0.041	0.042
Home team to score 2+ goals	255	56.1%	0.243	0.251
Over 20.5 shots	255	85.5%	0.118	0.125

Methodology and responsibility

What this panel measures — and what it does not

A prediction enters live history only when persisted before kick-off. Settlement uses the final score and objective final statistics. Missing data results in a void; exact whole-number lines result in a push.

ROI is a simulation using a fixed 1-unit stake and recorded real pre-match odds. It does not account for limits, liquidity, taxes, later price changes or actual bet execution.

The history shows the past performance of RadarOnze estimates. Previous results do not guarantee future performance.