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Bayern München vs Real Betis: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Allianz Arena · Referee: not provided

Bayern München

Bayern München

2 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

VSReal Betis

Real Betis

11 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

69.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 69.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

64.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 64.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

82.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 82.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

89.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 89.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

77.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 77.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

15.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 44.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

17.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

67.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.71 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1589 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.71 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 49.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Bayern München recorded 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 3.30 goals scored per match. Real Betis's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bayern München at home with 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 3.25 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded. Away from home, Real Betis has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Bayern München's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Real Betis's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.80 per match for Bayern München and 20.00 for Real Betis. On target, the averages are 8.50 and 5.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WDLWW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
10

Last 5

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WDLWWWWWWW
W
8
D
1
L
1
GF
33
GA
14

Last 1

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 15

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Last 1

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Season

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bayern München

3.30 · 10 matches

Real Betis

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Bayern München

1.40 · 10 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bayern München

5.90 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Bayern München

3.70 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bayern München

9.60 · 10 matches

Real Betis

10.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bayern München

2.11 · 9 matches

Real Betis

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Bayern München

2.89 · 9 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bayern München

5.00 · 9 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Bayern München

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Bayern München

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Bayern München

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bayern München

9.70 · 10 matches

Real Betis

13.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Bayern München

9.50 · 10 matches

Real Betis

11.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bayern München

19.20 · 10 matches

Real Betis

24.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bayern München

19.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Bayern München

10.90 · 10 matches

Real Betis

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Bayern München

4.50 · 10 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Bayern München

2.78 · 9 matches

Real Betis

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Bayern München

1.47 · 9 matches

Real Betis

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Bayern München at home × Real Betis away

Bayern München at home

Bayern München

8 matches
WDWWWWWW
W
7
D
1
L
0
GF
26
GA
7

Real Betis away

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Bayern München at home

3.25 · 8 matches

Real Betis away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Bayern München at home

0.88 · 8 matches

Real Betis away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München at home

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München at home

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Bayern München at home

8.50 · 8 matches

Real Betis away

10.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Bayern München at home

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Bayern München at home

4.29 · 7 matches

Real Betis away

5.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

9.66

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

8.51

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.90

1 matches · 80 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Musiala

Midfielder

7.86

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

L. Karl

Midfielder

6.71

1 matches · 10 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

6.83

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

S. Ulreich

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Real Betis

Marc Bartra

Centre-back

8.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Parrott

Forward

7.74

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

Pablo Fornals

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Isco

Midfielder

7.50

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Rodrigo Riquelme

Midfielder

6.63

1 matches · 81 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Álvaro Vallés

Goalkeeper

6.37

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Diego Conde

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.