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Lille vs Bayern München: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Referee: not provided

Lille

Lille

22 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSBayern München

Bayern München

2 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

94.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 94.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

70.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 68.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 70.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

82.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 82.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

98.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 98.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

91.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 91.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

49.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 33.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 49.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

63.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

17.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

19.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.83

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Lille recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Bayern München's 10-match sample contains 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Lille at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 1 match, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Bayern München has 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, with 3.14 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lille's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Bayern München's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 6.00 per match for Lille and 19.80 for Bayern München. On target, the averages are 2.00 and 8.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WDLWW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
10

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WDLWWWWWWW
W
8
D
1
L
1
GF
33
GA
14

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 15

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Season

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Season

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

3.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

1.40 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

5.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

3.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Lille

10.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.60 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

2.11 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

2.89 · 9 matches

Total average

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

5.00 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Lille

11.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Lille

13.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Lille

24.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

19.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Lille

6.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

19.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Lille

20.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

10.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

4.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Lille

Insufficient data

Bayern München

2.78 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Lille

Insufficient data

Bayern München

1.47 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Lille at home × Bayern München away

Lille at home

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Bayern München away

Bayern München

7 matches
LWWWLWW
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
22
GA
13
Average goals scored

Lille at home

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

3.14 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Lille at home

3.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Lille at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Lille at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Lille at home

10.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

10.14 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Total card average

Lille at home

5.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

4.29 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Lille

Alexsandro Ribeiro

Centre-back

7.59

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Ueda

Forward

7.57

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Perrin

Forward

6.47

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Mbappé

Midfielder

5.25

1 matches · 56 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Tiago Santos

Centre-back

6.59

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Özer

Goalkeeper

5.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

O. Gill

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

9.66

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

8.51

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.90

1 matches · 80 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Musiala

Midfielder

7.86

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

L. Karl

Midfielder

6.71

1 matches · 10 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

6.83

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

S. Ulreich

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.