RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Lens vs Como: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Referee: not provided

Lens

Lens

10 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSComo

Como

5 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

79.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 79.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

67.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 74.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 67.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 83.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

58.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 63.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 58.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

35.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 83.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

41.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.87 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1508

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.87 × 1.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 71.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Lens recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Como's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 4.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lens's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Como's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 26.00 per match for Lens and 14.00 for Como. On target, the averages are 8.00 and 6.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 5

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 1

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 1

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Season

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Lens

3.00 · 1 match

Como

4.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Como

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Lens

9.00 · 1 match

Como

1.00 · 1 match

Average against

Lens

6.00 · 1 match

Como

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lens

15.00 · 1 match

Como

6.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Como

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Como

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Como

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Como

9.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Como

10.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lens

16.00 · 1 match

Como

19.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Lens

26.00 · 1 match

Como

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Como

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Lens

18.00 · 1 match

Como

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Lens

5.00 · 1 match

Como

4.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Lens

Insufficient data

Como

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Lens

Insufficient data

Como

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Lens at home × Como away

Lens at home

Lens

0 matches

Insufficient data

Como away

Como

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Lens at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Como away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Lens at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Como away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Como away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Lens

F. Thauvin

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

A. Sima

Forward

7.67

1 matches · 75 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

R. Aguilar

Midfielder

7.47

1 matches · 28 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

F. Sotoca

Forward

7.06

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

O. Édouard

Forward

6.82

1 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

R. Risser

Goalkeeper

6.34

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Gorgelin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Como

M. Baturina

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

N. Paz

Midfielder

8.42

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Assane Diao

Midfielder

8.02

1 matches · 86 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

T. Douvikas

Forward

7.77

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

M. Perrone

Midfielder

7.53

1 matches · 25 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Butez

Goalkeeper

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Robert Sánchez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.