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Newcastle vs Everton: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 9

· LONDON TIME · St James' Park · Referee: not provided

Newcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

VSEverton

Everton

7 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.2%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

42.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.71 × 2.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.29

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 93.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 42.2%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.71 × 2.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

63.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 66.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 63.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

61.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 61.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

90.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.94

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.73 × 13.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.69

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 80.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 90.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.94 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.73 × 13.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

36.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 66.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.36

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.66 × 1.49

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Newcastle recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.80 goals scored per match. Everton's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Newcastle at home with 1 win, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Everton has 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Everton's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and 1 of 5 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.20 per match for Newcastle and 16.00 for Everton. On target, the averages are 3.60 and 4.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Everton

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Everton

0.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Everton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Everton

5.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Everton

4.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Everton

9.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Everton

1.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Everton

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Everton

3.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Everton

8.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Everton

12.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Everton

20.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Everton

16.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Everton

4.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Everton

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Everton

3.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Everton

1.48 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Everton

2.06 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Newcastle at home × Everton away

Newcastle at home

Newcastle

3 matches
WDD
W
1
D
2
L
0
GF
6
GA
5

Everton away

Everton

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

Newcastle at home

2.00 · 3 matches

Everton away

0.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Newcastle at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Everton away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Everton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Everton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Newcastle at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Newcastle at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Newcastle at home

8.67 · 3 matches

Everton away

14.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Newcastle at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Everton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Newcastle at home

6.00 · 3 matches

Everton away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Everton

J. Tarkowski

Centre-back

7.51

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

T. Barry

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 419 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 16 shots on target

A. Maitland-Niles

Centre-back

7.55

3 matches · 177 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 448 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 17 shots on target

Tyrique George

Forward

7.02

5 matches · 312 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

J. Pickford

Goalkeeper

7.07

5 matches · 450 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

T. King

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.