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Hull City vs Newcastle: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 38

· LONDON TIME · MKM Stadium · Referee: not provided

Hull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

VSNewcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

69.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 69.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

39.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.94

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.38 × 1.76

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.14

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 39.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.94 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.38 × 1.76 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

70.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 70.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

56.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 56.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

82.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.35

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.42 × 11.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.31

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 82.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.35 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.42 × 11.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

29.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

43.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.45 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.45 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Hull City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Newcastle's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Hull City at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Newcastle has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Hull City and 10.20 for Newcastle. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Hull City at home × Newcastle away

Hull City at home

Hull City

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
0

Newcastle away

Newcastle

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Hull City at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Hull City at home

7.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

13.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Hull City at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Newcastle 2 × 1 Hull City1557414
Average goals
3.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
100% · 1 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 11.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.