RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Brighton vs Liverpool: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 37

· LONDON TIME · American Express Stadium · Referee: not provided

Brighton

Brighton

3 · 10 pts · 5 P · 3 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 11

VSLiverpool

Liverpool

6 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 65.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

41.0%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.94

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.35 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.25

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 86

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 41.0%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.94 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.35 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

65.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 65.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

60.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 60.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

83.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.47 × 13.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.64

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 83.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.47 × 13.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

34.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

40.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1538

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.43

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Brighton recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 3.20 goals scored per match. Liverpool's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Brighton at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Liverpool has 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, with 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Brighton's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Liverpool's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.00 per match for Brighton and 15.20 for Liverpool. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Season

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Season

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Brighton

3.20 · 5 matches

Liverpool

1.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton

1.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Brighton

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Brighton

5.40 · 5 matches

Liverpool

4.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Brighton

4.60 · 5 matches

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

10.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Brighton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Brighton

2.40 · 5 matches

Liverpool

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

2.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool

2.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

4.40 · 5 matches

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Brighton

13.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

10.60 · 5 matches

Liverpool

10.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

23.60 · 5 matches

Liverpool

23.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Brighton

19.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool

15.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Brighton

5.80 · 5 matches

Liverpool

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Brighton

11.60 · 5 matches

Liverpool

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Brighton

3.80 · 5 matches

Liverpool

3.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Brighton

2.67 · 2 matches

Liverpool

2.30 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Brighton

1.63 · 2 matches

Liverpool

1.94 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Brighton at home × Liverpool away

Brighton at home

Brighton

3 matches
WDW
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
8
GA
1

Liverpool away

Liverpool

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
2
Average goals scored

Brighton at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Liverpool away

1.67 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton at home

0.33 · 3 matches

Liverpool away

0.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Brighton at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Brighton at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Liverpool away

7.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Liverpool away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total card average

Brighton at home

5.67 · 3 matches

Liverpool away

5.00 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Brighton

P. Groß

Midfielder

7.68

5 matches · 450 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

M. De Cuyper

Centre-back

7.14

5 matches · 425 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

C. Kostoulas

Forward

7.03

5 matches · 356 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

J. Hinshelwood

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

M. Yalcouyé

Midfielder

7.22

5 matches · 243 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

B. Verbruggen

Goalkeeper

6.83

5 matches · 450 min

12 saves · 4 goals conceded

J. Steele

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Liverpool

A. Isak

Forward

7.46

5 matches · 415 min

4 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

C. Gakpo

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 371 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

7.07

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

6.89

5 matches · 259 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

R. Gravenberch

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 192 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

7.04

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 4 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.