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Manchester United vs Leeds: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 36

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

12 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD 0

VSLeeds

Leeds

5 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.0%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.0%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.88 × 1.86

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.75

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.8%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.88 × 1.86 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

74.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 74.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

48.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 48.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

89.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.38

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.56 × 10.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.27

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 89.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.38 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.56 × 10.71 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

25.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.87 × 1.23

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.21

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Leeds's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Leeds has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester United's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Leeds's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 1 of 5 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 22.60 per match for Manchester United and 12.40 for Leeds. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Season

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Season

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

0.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Leeds

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester United

3.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

11.00 · 5 matches

Leeds

9.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

2.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

2.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

4.00 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Leeds

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

9.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

10.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

9.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

13.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

19.40 · 5 matches

Leeds

23.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

22.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

12.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester United

5.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

10.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

14.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

4.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester United

3.20 · 2 matches

Leeds

0.97 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester United

1.51 · 2 matches

Leeds

1.11 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × Leeds away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
5
GA
3

Leeds away

Leeds

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
1
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Leeds away

1.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Leeds away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Leeds away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

12.50 · 2 matches

Leeds away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Leeds away

4.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

7.44

5 matches · 458 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

B. Mbeumo

Forward

7.08

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 15 shots on target

Matheus Cunha

Forward

6.76

5 matches · 410 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 12 shots on target

K. Mainoo

Midfielder

7.25

5 matches · 357 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

L. Shaw

Centre-back

6.77

4 matches · 336 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

7.02

5 matches · 458 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin

Forward

6.98

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

J. Bogle

Midfielder

7.05

5 matches · 369 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

T. Muharemović

Centre-back

7.27

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

A. Stach

Midfielder

7.02

5 matches · 448 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

N. Okafor

Forward

6.81

5 matches · 303 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

J. Trafford

Goalkeeper

7.22

5 matches · 450 min

20 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Zetterer

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.