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Brentford vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 35

· LONDON TIME · Gtech Community Stadium · Referee: not provided

Brentford

Brentford

4 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 6

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

16 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

34.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.83

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 86.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 34.8%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

69.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 69.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

55.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 55.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

82.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.39

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.69 × 12.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.42

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 85.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 82.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.39 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.69 × 12.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

30.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.70 × 1.27

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Brentford recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Brentford at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Brentford's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.20 per match for Brentford and 9.60 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 4.60 and 2.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Season

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Season

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Brentford

2.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Brentford

0.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Brentford

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Brentford

4.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Brentford

5.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

9.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

7.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Brentford

2.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brentford

1.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

3.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Brentford

14.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

11.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brentford

9.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

23.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

22.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Brentford

16.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

9.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Brentford

13.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

16.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

5.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Brentford

2.72 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

0.30 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Brentford

1.02 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

2.41 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Brentford at home × Aston Villa away

Brentford at home

Brentford

3 matches
WDW
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
7
GA
1

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

3 matches
WDL
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
6
Average goals scored

Brentford at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Brentford at home

0.33 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Brentford at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Brentford at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Brentford at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Brentford at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Brentford at home

11.00 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Brentford at home

3.00 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

3.67 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Brentford

K. Schade

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 448 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

V. Janelt

Midfielder

7.06

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

K. Lewis-Potter

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 409 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

J. Anthony

Forward

6.88

5 matches · 270 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Kayode

Centre-back

6.77

5 matches · 297 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

C. Kelleher

Goalkeeper

7.12

5 matches · 450 min

17 saves · 1 goals conceded

E. Balcombe

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

J. Manzambi

Midfielder

7.44

2 matches · 99 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

6.62

5 matches · 446 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

6.87

4 matches · 289 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 8 shots on target

Alysson Edward

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 97 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

B. Kamara

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 454 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.19

4 matches · 370 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

2.17

3 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 4 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.