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Coventry vs Manchester United: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 34

· LONDON TIME · Coventry Building Society Arena · Referee: not provided

Coventry

Coventry

18 · 3 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 0 D · 4 L · GD -9

VSManchester United

Manchester United

12 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

84.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 84.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

28.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.89

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.47

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 28.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.89 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

46.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 21

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 46.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

77.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 34.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 77.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

91.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.41

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 11.16 × 16.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 28.00

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 81.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 91.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.41 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 11.16 × 16.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

53.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 21

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

22.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.08 × 1.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1575

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.08 × 1.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 34.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Coventry recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 0.20 goals scored per match. Manchester United's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Coventry at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester United has 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.67 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 5 matches (0%) of Coventry's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester United's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.20 per match for Coventry and 22.60 for Manchester United. On target, the averages are 3.20 and 5.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Season

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Season

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Coventry

0.20 · 5 matches

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Coventry

2.00 · 5 matches

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester United

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Coventry

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Coventry

4.00 · 5 matches

Manchester United

7.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Coventry

4.60 · 5 matches

Manchester United

3.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

8.60 · 5 matches

Manchester United

11.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Coventry

1.00 · 5 matches

Manchester United

1.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Coventry

1.60 · 5 matches

Manchester United

2.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

2.60 · 5 matches

Manchester United

4.00 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Coventry

12.00 · 5 matches

Manchester United

9.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Coventry

10.40 · 5 matches

Manchester United

9.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

22.40 · 5 matches

Manchester United

19.40 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Coventry

10.20 · 5 matches

Manchester United

22.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Coventry

3.20 · 5 matches

Manchester United

5.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Coventry

17.20 · 5 matches

Manchester United

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Coventry

4.40 · 5 matches

Manchester United

4.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Coventry

0.74 · 2 matches

Manchester United

3.20 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Coventry

1.30 · 2 matches

Manchester United

1.51 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Coventry at home × Manchester United away

Coventry at home

Coventry

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
0
GA
6

Manchester United away

Manchester United

3 matches
DDL
W
0
D
2
L
1
GF
3
GA
5
Average goals scored

Coventry at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Manchester United away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Coventry at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Manchester United away

1.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Coventry at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Coventry at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Coventry at home

8.00 · 2 matches

Manchester United away

10.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Manchester United away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Coventry at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Manchester United away

4.00 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Coventry

J. Dasilva

Midfielder

6.68

5 matches · 451 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

B. Thomas

Centre-back

6.80

5 matches · 438 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 10 shots on target

A. Amenda

Centre-back

6.54

4 matches · 366 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Grimes

Midfielder

6.54

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

J. Rudoni

Midfielder

6.47

5 matches · 301 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

C. Rushworth

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 456 min

9 saves · 4 goals conceded

D. Bentley

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

7.44

5 matches · 458 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

B. Mbeumo

Forward

7.08

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 15 shots on target

Matheus Cunha

Forward

6.76

5 matches · 410 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 12 shots on target

K. Mainoo

Midfielder

7.25

5 matches · 357 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

L. Shaw

Centre-back

6.77

4 matches · 336 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

7.02

5 matches · 458 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.