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Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 33

· LONDON TIME · City Ground · Referee: not provided

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

VSSunderland

Sunderland

14 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

68.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 68.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

29.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.58

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 89.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 29.8%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

65.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 65.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

62.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 62.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

84.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.42

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.02 × 11.65

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.67

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 84.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.42 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.02 × 11.65 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

34.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

28.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

37.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.16 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.33 × 1.18

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Nottingham Forest recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 0.80 goals scored per match. Sunderland's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Nottingham Forest at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Sunderland has 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, with 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Sunderland's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.40 per match for Nottingham Forest and 13.20 for Sunderland. On target, the averages are 3.40 and 5.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Sunderland

2.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Sunderland

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Sunderland

8.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

1.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

3.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Sunderland

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Sunderland

14.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Sunderland

27.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

13.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

5.00 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Sunderland

3.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Sunderland

1.21 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Sunderland

1.30 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Nottingham Forest at home × Sunderland away

Nottingham Forest at home

Nottingham Forest

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
0
GA
2

Sunderland away

Sunderland

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
8
Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0.00 · 3 matches

Sunderland away

1.67 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Sunderland away

2.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Nottingham Forest at home

8.33 · 3 matches

Sunderland away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Sunderland away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Nottingham Forest at home

3.00 · 3 matches

Sunderland away

3.00 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sunderland

B. Brobbey

Forward

7.02

5 matches · 401 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

E. Le Fée

Midfielder

6.79

5 matches · 439 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

N. Angulo

Midfielder

6.52

5 matches · 318 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

H. Diarra

Midfielder

6.75

2 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Meunier

Midfielder

6.66

5 matches · 399 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

R. Roefs

Goalkeeper

6.16

5 matches · 450 min

6 saves · 2 goals conceded

M. Ellborg

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.