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Bournemouth vs Arsenal: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 33

· LONDON TIME · Vitality Stadium · Referee: not provided

Bournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

VSArsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 79.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

37.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.25 × 1.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.06

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 37.9%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.25 × 1.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

45.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 11.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 45.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

78.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 35.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 78.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

74.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.42

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 9.79 × 13.87

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 23.66

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 74.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.42 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 9.79 × 13.87 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

54.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 11.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

21.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.92 × 1.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.98 × 1.68

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.94 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 35.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Bournemouth recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Arsenal's 5-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bournemouth at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Arsenal has 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Bournemouth and 13.00 for Arsenal. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Bournemouth at home × Arsenal away

Bournemouth at home

Bournemouth

3 matches
LDD
W
0
D
2
L
1
GF
3
GA
4

Arsenal away

Arsenal

3 matches
LWW
W
2
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Bournemouth at home

1.00 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Bournemouth at home

8.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

8.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Bournemouth at home

4.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.