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Liverpool vs Newcastle: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 31

· LONDON TIME · Anfield · Referee: not provided

Liverpool

Liverpool

6 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

VSNewcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 74.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

35.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.92

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 98.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 35.4%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.97 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

71.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 71.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

54.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 54.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

87.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.45

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 15.29 × 11.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.49

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 86.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 87.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.45 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 15.29 × 11.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

28.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

45.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.24

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Liverpool recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Newcastle's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Liverpool at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Newcastle has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Liverpool's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 15.20 per match for Liverpool and 10.20 for Newcastle. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Liverpool

1.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool

0.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Liverpool

4.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

8.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Liverpool

2.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

2.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Liverpool

13.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

10.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

23.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Liverpool

15.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Liverpool

4.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Liverpool

11.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Liverpool

3.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Liverpool

2.30 · 2 matches

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Liverpool

1.94 · 2 matches

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Liverpool at home × Newcastle away

Liverpool at home

Liverpool

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
2
GA
2

Newcastle away

Newcastle

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Liverpool at home

10.50 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

13.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Liverpool at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Liverpool

A. Isak

Forward

7.46

5 matches · 415 min

4 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

C. Gakpo

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 371 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

7.07

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

6.89

5 matches · 259 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

R. Gravenberch

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 192 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

7.04

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 4 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Newcastle 2 × 2 Liverpool1557375
Average goals
4.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
100% · 1 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 8.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.