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Crystal Palace vs Everton: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 31

· LONDON TIME · Selhurst Park · Referee: not provided

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace

15 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

VSEverton

Everton

7 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

74.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 74.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.57 × 2.10

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.67

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 74.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.57 × 2.10 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

58.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 58.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

68.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 68.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

80.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.45

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.77 × 12.06

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.83

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 93.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 80.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.45 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.77 × 12.06 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

41.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

27.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

31.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.00 × 1.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1499

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.52 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.14 × 1.36

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Crystal Palace recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Everton's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Crystal Palace at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Everton has 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Crystal Palace's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Everton's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 1 of 5 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.60 per match for Crystal Palace and 16.00 for Everton. On target, the averages are 3.60 and 4.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Season

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Season

Everton

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
6
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Crystal Palace

1.20 · 5 matches

Everton

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Crystal Palace

2.20 · 5 matches

Everton

0.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Everton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Crystal Palace

2.40 · 5 matches

Everton

5.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Crystal Palace

4.80 · 5 matches

Everton

4.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

7.20 · 5 matches

Everton

9.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Everton

1.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Everton

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

2.80 · 5 matches

Everton

3.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Everton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Everton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Everton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Everton

8.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Everton

12.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

19.20 · 5 matches

Everton

20.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Crystal Palace

10.60 · 5 matches

Everton

16.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Crystal Palace

3.60 · 5 matches

Everton

4.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Crystal Palace

16.80 · 5 matches

Everton

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Crystal Palace

5.60 · 5 matches

Everton

3.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Crystal Palace

1.31 · 2 matches

Everton

1.48 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Crystal Palace

1.67 · 2 matches

Everton

2.06 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Crystal Palace at home × Everton away

Crystal Palace at home

Crystal Palace

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
3
GA
7

Everton away

Everton

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

Crystal Palace at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Everton away

0.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Crystal Palace at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Everton away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Everton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Everton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Crystal Palace at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Crystal Palace at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Everton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Crystal Palace at home

8.50 · 2 matches

Everton away

14.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Crystal Palace at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Everton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Crystal Palace at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Everton away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Crystal Palace

D. Kamada

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 443 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

T. Mitchell

Midfielder

6.61

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

J. Strand Larsen

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 301 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Nketiah

Forward

6.65

4 matches · 176 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

A. Khalaili

Midfielder

6.65

5 matches · 380 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Henderson

Goalkeeper

6.93

3 matches · 270 min

12 saves · 6 goals conceded

W. Benítez

Goalkeeper

4.16

3 matches · 180 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

Everton

J. Tarkowski

Centre-back

7.51

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

T. Barry

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 419 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 16 shots on target

A. Maitland-Niles

Centre-back

7.55

3 matches · 177 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 448 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 17 shots on target

Tyrique George

Forward

7.02

5 matches · 312 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

J. Pickford

Goalkeeper

7.07

5 matches · 450 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

T. King

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Everton 2 × 0 Crystal Palace1557369
Average goals
2.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 4.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.