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Coventry vs Arsenal: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 31

· LONDON TIME · Coventry Building Society Arena · Referee: not provided

Coventry

Coventry

18 · 3 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 0 D · 4 L · GD -9

VSArsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

87.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 87.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

29.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.93

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.55

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 88.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 29.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.93 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 2.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

34.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 34.7%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

86.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 86.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

80.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.45

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 8.81 × 16.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.12

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 80.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.45 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 8.81 × 16.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

65.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

13.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.72 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1480 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.6

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.72 × 2.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Coventry recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 0.20 goals scored per match. Arsenal's 5-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Coventry at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Arsenal has 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 5 matches (0%) of Coventry's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.20 per match for Coventry and 13.00 for Arsenal. On target, the averages are 3.20 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Coventry

0.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Coventry

2.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Coventry

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Coventry

4.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Coventry

4.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

8.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Coventry

1.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Coventry

1.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

2.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Coventry

12.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Coventry

10.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Coventry

22.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Coventry

10.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Coventry

3.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Coventry

17.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Coventry

4.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Coventry

0.74 · 2 matches

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Coventry

1.30 · 2 matches

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Coventry at home × Arsenal away

Coventry at home

Coventry

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
0
GA
6

Arsenal away

Arsenal

3 matches
LWW
W
2
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Coventry at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Coventry at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Coventry at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Coventry at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Coventry at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Coventry at home

8.00 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

8.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Coventry at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Coventry at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Coventry

J. Dasilva

Midfielder

6.68

5 matches · 451 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

B. Thomas

Centre-back

6.80

5 matches · 438 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 10 shots on target

A. Amenda

Centre-back

6.54

4 matches · 366 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Grimes

Midfielder

6.54

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

J. Rudoni

Midfielder

6.47

5 matches · 301 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

C. Rushworth

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 456 min

9 saves · 4 goals conceded

D. Bentley

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Arsenal 3 × 0 Coventry1557367
Average goals
3.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 10.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.