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Arsenal vs Sunderland: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 30

· LONDON TIME · Emirates Stadium · Referee: not provided

Arsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

VSSunderland

Sunderland

14 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

53.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 53.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 53.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

31.7%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.68 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.66

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 83.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 31.7%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.68 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

87.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 46.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 87.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

33.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 34.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 33.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

80.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.5

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 17.39 × 7.61

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.00

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 84.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 80.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.5 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 17.39 × 7.61 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

13.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 46.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

66.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.08 × 0.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1496

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.90 × 0.67

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.03 × 0.69

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 34.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Arsenal recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Sunderland's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Arsenal at home with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Sunderland has 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, with 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Sunderland's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.00 per match for Arsenal and 13.20 for Sunderland. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 5.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

2.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Sunderland

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Sunderland

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

8.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Sunderland

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

1.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

3.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Sunderland

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Sunderland

14.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

27.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Sunderland

13.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

5.00 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Sunderland

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Sunderland

3.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Sunderland

1.21 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Sunderland

1.30 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Arsenal at home × Sunderland away

Arsenal at home

Arsenal

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
1

Sunderland away

Sunderland

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
8
Average goals scored

Arsenal at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Sunderland away

1.67 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal at home

0.50 · 2 matches

Sunderland away

2.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Arsenal at home

9.00 · 2 matches

Sunderland away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Sunderland away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Arsenal at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Sunderland away

3.00 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sunderland

B. Brobbey

Forward

7.02

5 matches · 401 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

E. Le Fée

Midfielder

6.79

5 matches · 439 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

N. Angulo

Midfielder

6.52

5 matches · 318 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

H. Diarra

Midfielder

6.75

2 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Meunier

Midfielder

6.66

5 matches · 399 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

R. Roefs

Goalkeeper

6.16

5 matches · 450 min

6 saves · 2 goals conceded

M. Ellborg

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Sunderland 0 × 2 Arsenal1557405
Average goals
2.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 7.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.