RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 29

· LONDON TIME · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Referee: not provided

Tottenham

Tottenham

20 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -6

VSNottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

74.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 49.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 74.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

42.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.29 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.33

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 83.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 42.3%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.29 × 2.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

54.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 54.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

71.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 71.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

82.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.52

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 11.99 × 13.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.24

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 97.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 82.5%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.52 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 11.99 × 13.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

46.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

28.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.09 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.5

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.19 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 1.53

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Tottenham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 0.40 goals scored per match. Nottingham Forest's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Tottenham at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Tottenham's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.40 per match for Tottenham and 16.40 for Nottingham Forest. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 3.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Tottenham

0.40 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Tottenham

1.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Tottenham

7.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Tottenham

4.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

12.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Tottenham

1.00 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Tottenham

1.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

2.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Tottenham

13.00 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Tottenham

13.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

26.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Tottenham

14.40 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Tottenham

3.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Tottenham

15.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Tottenham

4.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Tottenham

0.80 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Tottenham

2.31 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Tottenham at home × Nottingham Forest away

Tottenham at home

Tottenham

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
2
GA
5

Nottingham Forest away

Nottingham Forest

2 matches
WD
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

Tottenham at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Tottenham at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Tottenham at home

13.00 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

7.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Tottenham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total card average

Tottenham at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Nottingham Forest away

6.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Tottenham

J. van Hecke

Centre-back

7.02

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Robertson

Centre-back

6.64

5 matches · 367 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

M. Kudus

Midfielder

6.64

4 matches · 128 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

C. Gallagher

Midfielder

4.90

4 matches · 134 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Sávio

Forward

7.01

3 matches · 241 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

A. Kinský

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 455 min

12 saves · 5 goals conceded

M. Dúbravka

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Nottingham Forest 0 × 0 Tottenham1557396
Average goals
0.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 12.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.