Away team to score 1+ goals
86.5%
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- Sample
- 43 matches/team
- Model
- radaronze-v1
Model factors
League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.93 × 1.99
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1490 × 1643
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.5
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 1.01 × 1.86
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.96 × 1.95
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Signal consensus: 90.7
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.
Understand this analysisStructured analysis
Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 86.5%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.
League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.93 × 1.99 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)
No current market price is available for this signal.
The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.