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Liverpool vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 28

· LONDON TIME · Anfield · Referee: not provided

Liverpool

Liverpool

6 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

16 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.0%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.0%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

33.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.80

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 33.6%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

70.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 70.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

55.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 55.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

88.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.54

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 15.47 × 11.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.94

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 88.2%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.54 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 15.47 × 11.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

29.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

45.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.22

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.65 × 1.21

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Liverpool recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Liverpool at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Liverpool's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 15.20 per match for Liverpool and 9.60 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 2.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Season

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Season

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Liverpool

1.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool

0.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Liverpool

4.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

8.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

7.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Liverpool

2.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

2.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Liverpool

13.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

11.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

10.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

23.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

22.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Liverpool

15.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

9.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Liverpool

4.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Liverpool

11.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

16.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Liverpool

3.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

5.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Liverpool

2.30 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

0.30 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Liverpool

1.94 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

2.41 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Liverpool at home × Aston Villa away

Liverpool at home

Liverpool

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
2
GA
2

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

3 matches
WDL
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
6
Average goals scored

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Liverpool at home

10.50 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Liverpool at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

3.67 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Liverpool

A. Isak

Forward

7.46

5 matches · 415 min

4 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

C. Gakpo

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 371 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

7.07

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

6.89

5 matches · 259 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

R. Gravenberch

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 192 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

7.04

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 4 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

J. Manzambi

Midfielder

7.44

2 matches · 99 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

6.62

5 matches · 446 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

6.87

4 matches · 289 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 8 shots on target

Alysson Edward

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 97 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

B. Kamara

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 454 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.19

4 matches · 370 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

2.17

3 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 4 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.