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Newcastle vs Brentford: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 27

· LONDON TIME · St James' Park · Referee: not provided

Newcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

VSBrentford

Brentford

4 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 6

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

78.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 78.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

45.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.96 × 2.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.51

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 79

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 45.5%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.96 × 2.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

60.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 49.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 60.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

64.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 64.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

83.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.55

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.69 × 13.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.70

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 86.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 83.8%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.55 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.69 × 13.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

39.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 49.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

35.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.49 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1524

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.59

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.49 × 1.59

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Newcastle recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.80 goals scored per match. Brentford's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Newcastle at home with 1 win, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Brentford has 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Brentford's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.20 per match for Newcastle and 16.20 for Brentford. On target, the averages are 3.60 and 4.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Brentford

2.00 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Brentford

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Brentford

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Brentford

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Brentford

5.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Brentford

9.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Brentford

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Brentford

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Brentford

3.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Brentford

14.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Brentford

9.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Brentford

23.40 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Brentford

16.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Brentford

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Brentford

2.72 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Brentford

1.02 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Newcastle at home × Brentford away

Newcastle at home

Newcastle

3 matches
WDD
W
1
D
2
L
0
GF
6
GA
5

Brentford away

Brentford

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Newcastle at home

2.00 · 3 matches

Brentford away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Newcastle at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Brentford away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Brentford away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Brentford away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Brentford away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Newcastle at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Brentford away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Newcastle at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Brentford away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Newcastle at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Brentford away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Newcastle at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Brentford away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Newcastle at home

8.67 · 3 matches

Brentford away

7.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Newcastle at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Brentford away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Newcastle at home

6.00 · 3 matches

Brentford away

5.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Brentford

K. Schade

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 448 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

V. Janelt

Midfielder

7.06

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

K. Lewis-Potter

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 409 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

J. Anthony

Forward

6.88

5 matches · 270 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Kayode

Centre-back

6.77

5 matches · 297 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

C. Kelleher

Goalkeeper

7.12

5 matches · 450 min

17 saves · 1 goals conceded

E. Balcombe

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.