RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Leeds vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 26

· LONDON TIME · Elland Road · Referee: not provided

Leeds

Leeds

5 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

16 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.91 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.72

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.4%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.91 × 1.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

67.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 67.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

58.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 58.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

85.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.57

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.60 × 12.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.87

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 85.2%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.57 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.60 × 12.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

32.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

41.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.40 × 1.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1516 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.50 × 1.25

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.43 × 1.22

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Leeds recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Leeds at home with 1 win, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Leeds's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 5 matches (20%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 12.40 per match for Leeds and 9.60 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 3.60 and 2.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Season

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Season

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Leeds

0.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Leeds

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Leeds

4.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Leeds

4.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Leeds

9.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

7.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Leeds

2.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Leeds

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Leeds

10.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

11.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Leeds

13.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Leeds

23.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

22.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Leeds

12.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

9.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Leeds

3.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Leeds

14.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

16.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

5.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Leeds

0.97 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

0.30 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Leeds

1.11 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

2.41 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Leeds at home × Aston Villa away

Leeds at home

Leeds

3 matches
DWD
W
1
D
2
L
0
GF
5
GA
2

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

3 matches
WDL
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
6
Average goals scored

Leeds at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Leeds at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Leeds at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Leeds at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Leeds at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Leeds at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Leeds at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Leeds at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Leeds at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Leeds at home

9.33 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Leeds at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Leeds at home

4.00 · 3 matches

Aston Villa away

3.67 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin

Forward

6.98

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

J. Bogle

Midfielder

7.05

5 matches · 369 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

T. Muharemović

Centre-back

7.27

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

A. Stach

Midfielder

7.02

5 matches · 448 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

N. Okafor

Forward

6.81

5 matches · 303 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

J. Trafford

Goalkeeper

7.22

5 matches · 450 min

20 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Zetterer

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

J. Manzambi

Midfielder

7.44

2 matches · 99 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

6.62

5 matches · 446 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

6.87

4 matches · 289 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 8 shots on target

Alysson Edward

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 97 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

B. Kamara

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 454 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.19

4 matches · 370 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

2.17

3 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 4 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.