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Ipswich vs Arsenal: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 25

· LONDON TIME · Portman Road · Referee: not provided

Ipswich

Ipswich

11 · 6 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 0 D · 3 L · GD -4

VSArsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

87.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 87.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.76 × 2.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.82

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.76 × 2.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

37.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 4.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 37.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

83.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 83.7%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

81.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.6

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 9.00 × 16.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.24

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 82.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 81.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.6 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 9.00 × 16.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

62.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 4.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

16.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.88 × 2.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.88 × 2.04

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Ipswich recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Arsenal's 5-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Ipswich at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Arsenal has 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Ipswich's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.60 per match for Ipswich and 13.00 for Arsenal. On target, the averages are 4.60 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Ipswich

1.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Ipswich

3.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Ipswich

5.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

8.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Ipswich

1.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

4.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Ipswich

9.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

20.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Ipswich

4.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Ipswich

17.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Ipswich

5.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Ipswich

1.90 · 2 matches

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Ipswich

2.62 · 2 matches

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Ipswich at home × Arsenal away

Ipswich at home

Ipswich

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Arsenal away

Arsenal

3 matches
LWW
W
2
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Ipswich at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Ipswich at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Ipswich at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Ipswich at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Ipswich at home

7.50 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

8.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Ipswich at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Arsenal away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Ipswich

Emersonn

Forward

7.11

5 matches · 321 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

L. Davis

Centre-back

6.47

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

J. Enciso

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 423 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 16 shots on target

Z. Flemming

Forward

6.91

3 matches · 60 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

J. Clarke

Forward

6.68

4 matches · 172 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

K. Scherpen

Goalkeeper

5.64

5 matches · 368 min

16 saves · 6 goals conceded

C. Walton

Goalkeeper

1.90

3 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.