Fulham vs Manchester City: match stats

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 24

6 February 2027 at 15:00 · LONDON TIME · Craven Cottage · Referee: not provided

Fulham

19 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -3

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

88.7%

high

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Signal consensus: 94.1
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 88.7%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.6%

high

View full analysis

Sample: 40 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — metric: 3.91
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 1.70 × 2.04
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 68.1
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 40 / 41
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 96.7%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Model expected metric: 3.74
Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.
Signal consensus: 93.6
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.6%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 2.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

36.9%

medium

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team
The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.
Signal consensus: 0
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 36.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

83.6%

medium

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team
The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.
Signal consensus: 0
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 83.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

88.7%

high

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — shots: 25.62
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 9.77 × 17.00
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 85.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Model expected shots: 26.77
Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.
Signal consensus: 94.7
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 88.7%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.62 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 9.77 × 17.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

63.1%

medium

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team
The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.
Signal consensus: 0
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.4%

medium

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team
The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.
Signal consensus: 89.8
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

16.4%

medium

View full analysis

Sample: 43 matches/team
Model: radaronze-v1

Model factors

League average — goals: 2.76
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 0.91 × 2.18
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1466 × 1641
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.2
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 43 / 43
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 0.99 × 2.04
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 0.94 × 2.14
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team
The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.
Signal consensus: 0
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Fulham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Manchester City's 5-match sample contains 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 2.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Fulham at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester City has 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Fulham's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for Fulham and 13.60 for Manchester City. On target, the averages are 4.40 and 5.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches

DDLLL

W: 0
D: 2
L: 3
GF: 5
GA: 8

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches

WWWWW

W: 5
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 13
GA: 5

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches

DDLLL

W: 0
D: 2
L: 3
GF: 5
GA: 8

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches

WWWWW

W: 5
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 13
GA: 5

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches

DDLLL

W: 0
D: 2
L: 3
GF: 5
GA: 8

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches

WWWWW

W: 5
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 13
GA: 5

Season

Fulham

5 matches

DDLLL

W: 0
D: 2
L: 3
GF: 5
GA: 8

Season

Manchester City

5 matches

WWWWW

W: 5
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 13
GA: 5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored: Fulham
1.00 · 5 matches
Manchester City
2.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded: Fulham
1.60 · 5 matches
Manchester City
1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5: Fulham
80% · 4 of 5 matches
Manchester City
100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5: Fulham
60% · 3 of 5 matches
Manchester City
60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored: Fulham
60% · 3 of 5 matches
Manchester City
60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet: Fulham
20% · 1 of 5 matches
Manchester City
40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
0% · 0 of 5 matches

Indicator	Fulham	Manchester City
Average goals scored	1.00 · 5 matches	2.60 · 5 matches
Average goals conceded	1.60 · 5 matches	1.00 · 5 matches
Over 0.5	80% · 4 of 5 matches	100% · 5 of 5 matches
Over 1.5	60% · 3 of 5 matches	60% · 3 of 5 matches
Over 2.5	40% · 2 of 5 matches	60% · 3 of 5 matches
Over 3.5	40% · 2 of 5 matches	40% · 2 of 5 matches
Both teams scored	60% · 3 of 5 matches	60% · 3 of 5 matches
Clean sheet	20% · 1 of 5 matches	40% · 2 of 5 matches
Failed to score	40% · 2 of 5 matches	0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for: Fulham
5.60 · 5 matches
Manchester City
6.20 · 5 matches

Average against: Fulham
5.20 · 5 matches
Manchester City
4.20 · 5 matches

Total average: Fulham
10.80 · 5 matches
Manchester City
10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5: Fulham
80% · 4 of 5 matches
Manchester City
100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5: Fulham
60% · 3 of 5 matches
Manchester City
80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 9.5: Fulham
60% · 3 of 5 matches
Manchester City
60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
20% · 1 of 5 matches

Indicator	Fulham	Manchester City
Average for	5.60 · 5 matches	6.20 · 5 matches
Average against	5.20 · 5 matches	4.20 · 5 matches
Total average	10.80 · 5 matches	10.40 · 5 matches
Over 7.5	80% · 4 of 5 matches	100% · 5 of 5 matches
Over 8.5	60% · 3 of 5 matches	80% · 4 of 5 matches
Over 9.5	60% · 3 of 5 matches	60% · 3 of 5 matches
Over 10.5	40% · 2 of 5 matches	60% · 3 of 5 matches
Over 11.5	40% · 2 of 5 matches	20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average: Fulham
1.60 · 5 matches
Manchester City
1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average: Fulham
0.60 · 5 matches
Manchester City
1.40 · 5 matches

Total average: Fulham
2.20 · 5 matches
Manchester City
2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5: Fulham
40% · 2 of 5 matches
Manchester City
80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5: Fulham
20% · 1 of 5 matches
Manchester City
20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5: Fulham
20% · 1 of 5 matches
Manchester City
0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5: Fulham
0% · 0 of 5 matches
Manchester City
0% · 0 of 5 matches

Indicator	Fulham	Manchester City
Team average	1.60 · 5 matches	1.40 · 5 matches
Opponent average	0.60 · 5 matches	1.40 · 5 matches
Total average	2.20 · 5 matches	2.80 · 5 matches
Over 2.5	40% · 2 of 5 matches	80% · 4 of 5 matches
Over 3.5	20% · 1 of 5 matches	20% · 1 of 5 matches
Over 4.5	20% · 1 of 5 matches	0% · 0 of 5 matches
Over 5.5	0% · 0 of 5 matches	0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average: Fulham
10.00 · 5 matches
Manchester City
10.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average: Fulham
8.00 · 5 matches
Manchester City
13.40 · 5 matches

Total average: Fulham
18.00 · 5 matches
Manchester City
24.00 · 5 matches

Indicator	Fulham	Manchester City
Committed average	10.00 · 5 matches	10.60 · 5 matches
Opponent average	8.00 · 5 matches	13.40 · 5 matches
Total average	18.00 · 5 matches	24.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots: Fulham
14.00 · 5 matches
Manchester City
13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target: Fulham
4.40 · 5 matches
Manchester City
5.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded: Fulham
16.60 · 5 matches
Manchester City
11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded: Fulham
4.80 · 5 matches
Manchester City
4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG: Fulham
1.06 · 2 matches
Manchester City
2.23 · 2 matches

Average xG against: Fulham
2.00 · 2 matches
Manchester City
0.66 · 2 matches

Indicator	Fulham	Manchester City
Average shots	14.00 · 5 matches	13.60 · 5 matches
Average shots on target	4.40 · 5 matches	5.40 · 5 matches
Average shots conceded	16.60 · 5 matches	11.80 · 5 matches
Average shots on target conceded	4.80 · 5 matches	4.00 · 5 matches
Average xG	1.06 · 2 matches	2.23 · 2 matches
Average xG against	2.00 · 2 matches	0.66 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Fulham at home × Manchester City away

Fulham at home

Fulham

3 matches

DLL

W: 0
D: 1
L: 2
GF: 5
GA: 7

Manchester City away

Manchester City

2 matches

W: 2
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 5
GA: 1

Average goals scored: Fulham at home
1.67 · 3 matches
Manchester City away
2.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded: Fulham at home
2.33 · 3 matches
Manchester City away
0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5: Fulham at home
100% · 3 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5: Fulham at home
100% · 3 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5: Fulham at home
67% · 2 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5: Fulham at home
67% · 2 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored: Fulham at home
100% · 3 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet: Fulham at home
0% · 0 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score: Fulham at home
0% · 0 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average: Fulham at home
11.33 · 3 matches
Manchester City away
10.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners: Fulham at home
67% · 2 of 3 matches
Manchester City away
50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average: Fulham at home
2.67 · 3 matches
Manchester City away
3.50 · 2 matches

Indicator	Fulham at home	Manchester City away
Average goals scored	1.67 · 3 matches	2.50 · 2 matches
Average goals conceded	2.33 · 3 matches	0.50 · 2 matches
Over 0.5	100% · 3 of 3 matches	100% · 2 of 2 matches
Over 1.5	100% · 3 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Over 2.5	67% · 2 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Over 3.5	67% · 2 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Both teams scored	100% · 3 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Clean sheet	0% · 0 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Failed to score	0% · 0 of 3 matches	0% · 0 of 2 matches
Total corner average	11.33 · 3 matches	10.50 · 2 matches
Over 8.5 corners	67% · 2 of 3 matches	50% · 1 of 2 matches
Total card average	2.67 · 3 matches	3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Fulham

Joshua King

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 427 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

Gonzalo García

Forward

6.63

5 matches · 427 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 10 shots on target

T. Castagne

Centre-back

6.34

5 matches · 410 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

César Palacios

Midfielder

5.40

5 matches · 231 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

Jorge Cuenca

Centre-back

7.20

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Leno

Goalkeeper

6.48

5 matches · 450 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

B. Lecomte

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.

Fulham vs Manchester City: statistics and analysis

Fulham

Manchester City

RadarOnze analysis

RadarOnze analysis

Recent form and season

Fulham

Manchester City

Fulham

Manchester City

Fulham

Manchester City

Fulham

Manchester City

Frequencies across the last 10

Volume and observed lines

Averages and frequencies

Match intensity

Production and concessions

Fulham at home × Manchester City away

Fulham

Manchester City

Pre-match highlights

Fulham

Joshua King

Gonzalo García

T. Castagne

César Palacios

Jorge Cuenca

B. Leno

B. Lecomte

Manchester City

E. Haaland

R. Cherki

A. Semenyo

J. Gvardiol

M. Guéhi

G. Donnarumma

G. Rulli

Recent meetings

Data convergences