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Manchester City vs Arsenal: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 23

· LONDON TIME · Etihad Stadium · Referee: not provided

Manchester City

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

VSArsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 54.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

32.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.74

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 32.3%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

64.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 64.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

62.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 62.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

71.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.64

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 11.62 × 11.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 23.13

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 74.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 71.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.64 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 11.62 × 11.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

35.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 75.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.18 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester City recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 2.60 goals scored per match. Arsenal's 5-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester City at home with 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Arsenal has 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Manchester City and 13.00 for Arsenal. On target, the averages are 5.40 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester City

2.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City

1.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester City

6.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester City

4.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

10.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

2.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester City

10.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

13.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

24.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester City

13.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester City

5.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester City

11.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester City

4.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester City

2.23 · 2 matches

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester City

0.66 · 2 matches

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester City at home × Arsenal away

Manchester City at home

Manchester City

3 matches
WWW
W
3
D
0
L
0
GF
8
GA
4

Arsenal away

Arsenal

3 matches
LWW
W
2
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Manchester City at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Manchester City at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

8.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Manchester City at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.