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Aston Villa vs Ipswich: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 23

· LONDON TIME · Villa Park · Referee: not provided

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

16 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

VSIpswich

Ipswich

11 · 6 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 0 D · 3 L · GD -4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 57.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

35.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 2.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.95

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 91.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 35.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 2.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

69.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 69.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

55.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 55.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

86.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.64

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.11 × 12.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.30

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 89.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 86.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.64 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.11 × 12.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

30.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 1.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1521 × 1493

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 1.32

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Aston Villa recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and averaged 0.80 goals scored per match. Ipswich's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Aston Villa at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Ipswich has 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 3 matches, with 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Aston Villa's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Ipswich's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 9.60 per match for Aston Villa and 11.60 for Ipswich. On target, the averages are 2.40 and 4.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Season

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Season

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Aston Villa

0.80 · 5 matches

Ipswich

1.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa

1.80 · 5 matches

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Aston Villa

3.00 · 5 matches

Ipswich

3.60 · 5 matches

Average against

Aston Villa

4.80 · 5 matches

Ipswich

5.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

7.80 · 5 matches

Ipswich

8.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Ipswich

1.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

4.40 · 5 matches

Ipswich

4.00 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Aston Villa

11.40 · 5 matches

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

10.60 · 5 matches

Ipswich

9.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

22.00 · 5 matches

Ipswich

20.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Aston Villa

9.60 · 5 matches

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Aston Villa

2.40 · 5 matches

Ipswich

4.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Aston Villa

16.20 · 5 matches

Ipswich

17.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Aston Villa

5.20 · 5 matches

Ipswich

5.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Aston Villa

0.30 · 2 matches

Ipswich

1.90 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Aston Villa

2.41 · 2 matches

Ipswich

2.62 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Aston Villa at home × Ipswich away

Aston Villa at home

Aston Villa

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
1
GA
3

Ipswich away

Ipswich

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
5
GA
8
Average goals scored

Aston Villa at home

0.50 · 2 matches

Ipswich away

1.67 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Ipswich away

2.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Aston Villa at home

6.50 · 2 matches

Ipswich away

9.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Aston Villa at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Ipswich away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Aston Villa at home

5.50 · 2 matches

Ipswich away

4.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Aston Villa

J. Manzambi

Midfielder

7.44

2 matches · 99 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

6.62

5 matches · 446 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

6.87

4 matches · 289 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 8 shots on target

Alysson Edward

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 97 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

B. Kamara

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 454 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.19

4 matches · 370 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

2.17

3 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 4 goals conceded

Ipswich

Emersonn

Forward

7.11

5 matches · 321 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

L. Davis

Centre-back

6.47

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

J. Enciso

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 423 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 16 shots on target

Z. Flemming

Forward

6.91

3 matches · 60 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

J. Clarke

Forward

6.68

4 matches · 172 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

K. Scherpen

Goalkeeper

5.64

5 matches · 368 min

16 saves · 6 goals conceded

C. Walton

Goalkeeper

1.90

3 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.