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Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 22

· LONDON TIME · City Ground · Referee: not provided

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

VSBournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

33.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 2.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.80

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 93.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 33.6%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 2.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

57.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 57.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

69.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 69.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

88.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.66

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.91 × 14.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.92

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 85.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 88.5%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.66 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.91 × 14.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

42.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

31.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 1.43

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.61

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.21 × 1.48

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Nottingham Forest recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 0.80 goals scored per match. Bournemouth's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Nottingham Forest at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Bournemouth has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.40 per match for Nottingham Forest and 13.60 for Bournemouth. On target, the averages are 3.40 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Nottingham Forest at home × Bournemouth away

Nottingham Forest at home

Nottingham Forest

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
0
GA
2

Bournemouth away

Bournemouth

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0.00 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Nottingham Forest at home

8.33 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Nottingham Forest at home

3.00 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

4.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.