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Crystal Palace vs Tottenham: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 22

· LONDON TIME · Selhurst Park · Referee: not provided

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace

15 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

VSTottenham

Tottenham

20 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -6

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.0%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.0%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

38.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.89 × 2.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.03

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 38.2%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.89 × 2.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

65.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 65.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

61.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 61.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

76.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.66

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.67 × 11.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.01

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 93.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 76.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.66 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.67 × 11.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

34.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.24 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1454 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.12

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Crystal Palace recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Tottenham's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 0.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Crystal Palace at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Tottenham has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Crystal Palace's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Tottenham's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.60 per match for Crystal Palace and 14.40 for Tottenham. On target, the averages are 3.60 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Season

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Season

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Crystal Palace

1.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

0.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Crystal Palace

2.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Crystal Palace

2.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

7.60 · 5 matches

Average against

Crystal Palace

4.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

7.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

12.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

2.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Crystal Palace

19.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

26.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Crystal Palace

10.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

14.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Crystal Palace

3.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Crystal Palace

16.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

15.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Crystal Palace

5.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Crystal Palace

1.31 · 2 matches

Tottenham

0.80 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Crystal Palace

1.67 · 2 matches

Tottenham

2.31 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Crystal Palace at home × Tottenham away

Crystal Palace at home

Crystal Palace

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
3
GA
7

Tottenham away

Tottenham

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
0
GA
3
Average goals scored

Crystal Palace at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

0.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Crystal Palace at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Crystal Palace at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Crystal Palace at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Crystal Palace at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Crystal Palace at home

8.50 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

11.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Crystal Palace at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Crystal Palace at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Crystal Palace

D. Kamada

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 443 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

T. Mitchell

Midfielder

6.61

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

J. Strand Larsen

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 301 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Nketiah

Forward

6.65

4 matches · 176 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

A. Khalaili

Midfielder

6.65

5 matches · 380 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Henderson

Goalkeeper

6.93

3 matches · 270 min

12 saves · 6 goals conceded

W. Benítez

Goalkeeper

4.16

3 matches · 180 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

Tottenham

J. van Hecke

Centre-back

7.02

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Robertson

Centre-back

6.64

5 matches · 367 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

M. Kudus

Midfielder

6.64

4 matches · 128 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

C. Gallagher

Midfielder

4.90

4 matches · 134 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Sávio

Forward

7.01

3 matches · 241 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

A. Kinský

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 455 min

12 saves · 5 goals conceded

M. Dúbravka

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.