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Brighton vs Manchester City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 22

· LONDON TIME · Amex Stadium · Referee: not provided

Brighton

Brighton

3 · 10 pts · 5 P · 3 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 11

VSManchester City

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

84.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 84.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

37.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.94 × 2.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.06

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 37.9%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.94 × 2.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

50.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 31.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 50.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

73.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 29.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 73.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

82.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.66

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 10.86 × 14.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.23

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 82.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.66 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 10.86 × 14.37 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

49.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 31.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

26.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.17 × 1.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.78

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.19 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 29.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Brighton recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 3.20 goals scored per match. Manchester City's 5-match sample contains 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 2.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Brighton at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester City has 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Brighton's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.00 per match for Brighton and 13.60 for Manchester City. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 5.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Season

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Season

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Brighton

3.20 · 5 matches

Manchester City

2.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton

1.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Brighton

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Brighton

5.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

6.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Brighton

4.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

4.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

10.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Brighton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Brighton

2.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

2.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

4.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Brighton

13.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

10.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

10.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

13.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

23.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

24.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Brighton

19.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Brighton

5.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

5.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Brighton

11.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Brighton

3.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Brighton

2.67 · 2 matches

Manchester City

2.23 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Brighton

1.63 · 2 matches

Manchester City

0.66 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Brighton at home × Manchester City away

Brighton at home

Brighton

3 matches
WDW
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
8
GA
1

Manchester City away

Manchester City

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
1
Average goals scored

Brighton at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Manchester City away

2.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton at home

0.33 · 3 matches

Manchester City away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Brighton at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Brighton at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Manchester City away

10.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Brighton at home

5.67 · 3 matches

Manchester City away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Brighton

P. Groß

Midfielder

7.68

5 matches · 450 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

M. De Cuyper

Centre-back

7.14

5 matches · 425 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

C. Kostoulas

Forward

7.03

5 matches · 356 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

J. Hinshelwood

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

M. Yalcouyé

Midfielder

7.22

5 matches · 243 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

B. Verbruggen

Goalkeeper

6.83

5 matches · 450 min

12 saves · 4 goals conceded

J. Steele

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.