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Nottingham Forest vs Hull City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 20

· LONDON TIME · City Ground · Referee: not provided

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

VSHull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

31.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.37 × 2.33

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.70

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 31.7%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.37 × 2.33 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

58.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 58.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

70.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 70.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

86.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.72

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.26 × 12.83

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.09

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 86.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.72 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.26 × 12.83 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

41.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

29.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

29.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.98 × 1.23

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1472 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.98 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Nottingham Forest recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 0.80 goals scored per match. Hull City's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Nottingham Forest at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Hull City has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.40 per match for Nottingham Forest and 11.80 for Hull City. On target, the averages are 3.40 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Nottingham Forest at home × Hull City away

Nottingham Forest at home

Nottingham Forest

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
0
GA
2

Hull City away

Hull City

3 matches
LDW
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
4
Average goals scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0.00 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Nottingham Forest at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Nottingham Forest at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Nottingham Forest at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Nottingham Forest at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Hull City away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Nottingham Forest at home

8.33 · 3 matches

Hull City away

11.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Nottingham Forest at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Nottingham Forest at home

3.00 · 3 matches

Hull City away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.