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Brighton vs Bournemouth: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 20

· LONDON TIME · Amex Stadium · Referee: not provided

Brighton

Brighton

3 · 10 pts · 5 P · 3 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 11

VSBournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

74.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 74.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

44.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.91

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.13 × 2.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.41

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 44.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.91 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.13 × 2.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

71.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 71.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

52.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 52.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

85.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.72

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.13 × 11.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.12

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 85.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.72 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.13 × 11.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

28.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

47.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.76 × 1.42

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.29

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Brighton recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 3.20 goals scored per match. Bournemouth's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Brighton at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Bournemouth has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Brighton's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.00 per match for Brighton and 13.60 for Bournemouth. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Brighton

3.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton

1.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Brighton

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Brighton

5.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Brighton

4.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

10.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Brighton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Brighton

2.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

2.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

4.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Brighton

13.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brighton

10.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Brighton

23.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Brighton

19.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Brighton

5.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Brighton

11.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Brighton

3.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Brighton

2.67 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Brighton

1.63 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Brighton at home × Bournemouth away

Brighton at home

Brighton

3 matches
WDW
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
8
GA
1

Bournemouth away

Bournemouth

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Brighton at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Brighton at home

0.33 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Brighton at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Brighton at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Brighton at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Brighton at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Brighton at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Brighton at home

5.67 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

4.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Brighton

P. Groß

Midfielder

7.68

5 matches · 450 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

M. De Cuyper

Centre-back

7.14

5 matches · 425 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

C. Kostoulas

Forward

7.03

5 matches · 356 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

J. Hinshelwood

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

M. Yalcouyé

Midfielder

7.22

5 matches · 243 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

B. Verbruggen

Goalkeeper

6.83

5 matches · 450 min

12 saves · 4 goals conceded

J. Steele

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.