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Manchester City vs Tottenham: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 19

· LONDON TIME · Etihad Stadium · Referee: not provided

Manchester City

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

VSTottenham

Tottenham

20 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -6

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

58.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 63

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 58.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

35.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.94 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.89

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 35.4%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.94 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

86.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 28.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 86.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

33.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 8.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 33.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

84.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.73

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.77 × 8.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.69

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 84.6%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.73 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.77 × 8.92 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

13.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 28.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

19.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

66.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.28 × 0.81

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.03 × 0.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.21 × 0.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 8.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester City recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 2.60 goals scored per match. Tottenham's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 0.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester City at home with 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Tottenham has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Tottenham's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Manchester City and 14.40 for Tottenham. On target, the averages are 5.40 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Season

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Season

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester City

2.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

0.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City

1.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester City

6.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

7.60 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester City

4.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

10.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

12.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

2.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester City

10.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

13.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

24.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

26.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester City

13.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

14.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester City

5.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester City

11.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

15.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester City

4.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester City

2.23 · 2 matches

Tottenham

0.80 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester City

0.66 · 2 matches

Tottenham

2.31 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester City at home × Tottenham away

Manchester City at home

Manchester City

3 matches
WWW
W
3
D
0
L
0
GF
8
GA
4

Tottenham away

Tottenham

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
0
GA
3
Average goals scored

Manchester City at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Tottenham away

0.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Tottenham away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Manchester City at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Tottenham away

11.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Manchester City at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Tottenham away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Tottenham

J. van Hecke

Centre-back

7.02

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Robertson

Centre-back

6.64

5 matches · 367 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

M. Kudus

Midfielder

6.64

4 matches · 128 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

C. Gallagher

Midfielder

4.90

4 matches · 134 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Sávio

Forward

7.01

3 matches · 241 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

A. Kinský

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 455 min

12 saves · 5 goals conceded

M. Dúbravka

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.