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Chelsea vs Newcastle: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 19

· LONDON TIME · Stamford Bridge · Referee: not provided

Chelsea

Chelsea

10 · 7 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 1 D · 2 L · GD -2

VSNewcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.2%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

48.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.37 × 2.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.62

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 48.5%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.37 × 2.26 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

65.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 65.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

59.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 59.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

84.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.73

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.09 × 11.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.48

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 84.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.73 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.09 × 11.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

34.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

40.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.48

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1490 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.59 × 1.36

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Chelsea recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Newcastle's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Chelsea at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Newcastle has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Chelsea's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of 5 matches (100%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.40 per match for Chelsea and 10.20 for Newcastle. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Chelsea

2.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Chelsea

2.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Chelsea

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Chelsea

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Chelsea

6.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Chelsea

5.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Chelsea

12.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Chelsea

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Chelsea

1.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Chelsea

2.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Chelsea

4.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Chelsea

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Chelsea

8.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Chelsea

11.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Chelsea

20.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Chelsea

14.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Chelsea

5.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Chelsea

14.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Chelsea

6.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Chelsea

2.61 · 2 matches

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Chelsea

1.45 · 2 matches

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Chelsea at home × Newcastle away

Chelsea at home

Chelsea

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
6
GA
5

Newcastle away

Newcastle

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Chelsea at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Chelsea at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Chelsea at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Chelsea at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Chelsea at home

13.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

13.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Chelsea at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Chelsea at home

5.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Chelsea

João Pedro

Forward

7.53

4 matches · 360 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 8 shots on target

M. Rogers

Midfielder

7.55

5 matches · 439 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

C. Palmer

Midfielder

7.42

5 matches · 443 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 14 shots on target

J. Hato

Centre-back

5.26

5 matches · 260 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pedro Neto

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 336 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

E. Martínez

Goalkeeper

6.72

4 matches · 360 min

18 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Penders

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.