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Brentford vs Crystal Palace: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 19

· LONDON TIME · Brentford Community Stadium · Referee: not provided

Brentford

Brentford

4 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 6

VSCrystal Palace

Crystal Palace

15 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.8%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

31.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.78 × 1.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.59

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 72.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 31.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.78 × 1.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

76.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 76.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

48.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 48.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

79.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.73

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.49 × 11.20

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.69

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 79.5%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.73 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.49 × 11.20 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

23.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 75.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 0.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1524 × 1454

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.75 × 1.34

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.07

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Brentford recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Crystal Palace's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Brentford at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Crystal Palace has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Brentford's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Crystal Palace's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.20 per match for Brentford and 10.60 for Crystal Palace. On target, the averages are 4.60 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Last 5

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Last 5

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Season

Brentford

5 matches
WDDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Season

Crystal Palace

5 matches
DLWLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
11

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Brentford

2.00 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Brentford

0.80 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

2.20 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Brentford

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Brentford

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Brentford

4.40 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

2.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Brentford

5.00 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

9.40 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

7.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Brentford

2.20 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brentford

1.60 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

1.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

3.80 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Brentford

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Brentford

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Crystal Palace

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Brentford

14.40 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Brentford

9.00 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

9.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Brentford

23.40 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

19.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Brentford

16.20 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Brentford

13.60 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

16.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Brentford

4.60 · 5 matches

Crystal Palace

5.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Brentford

2.72 · 2 matches

Crystal Palace

1.31 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Brentford

1.02 · 2 matches

Crystal Palace

1.67 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Brentford at home × Crystal Palace away

Brentford at home

Brentford

3 matches
WDW
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
7
GA
1

Crystal Palace away

Crystal Palace

3 matches
DWL
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Brentford at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Brentford at home

0.33 · 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Brentford at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Brentford at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Brentford at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Brentford at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Brentford at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Brentford at home

11.00 · 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

6.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Brentford at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total card average

Brentford at home

3.00 · 3 matches

Crystal Palace away

2.00 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Brentford

K. Schade

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 448 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

V. Janelt

Midfielder

7.06

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

K. Lewis-Potter

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 409 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

J. Anthony

Forward

6.88

5 matches · 270 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Kayode

Centre-back

6.77

5 matches · 297 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

C. Kelleher

Goalkeeper

7.12

5 matches · 450 min

17 saves · 1 goals conceded

E. Balcombe

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Crystal Palace

D. Kamada

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 443 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

T. Mitchell

Midfielder

6.61

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

J. Strand Larsen

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 301 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Nketiah

Forward

6.65

4 matches · 176 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

A. Khalaili

Midfielder

6.65

5 matches · 380 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Henderson

Goalkeeper

6.93

3 matches · 270 min

12 saves · 6 goals conceded

W. Benítez

Goalkeeper

4.16

3 matches · 180 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.