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Hull City vs Leeds: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 18

· LONDON TIME · MKM Stadium · Referee: not provided

Hull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

VSLeeds

Leeds

5 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

36.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.45 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.91

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 91.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 36.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.45 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

70.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 70.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

57.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 57.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

84.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.74

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.08 × 12.37

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.45

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 84.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.74 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.08 × 12.37 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

29.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

27.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

42.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1516

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.34 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Hull City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Leeds's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Hull City at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Leeds has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Leeds's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 1 of 5 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Hull City and 12.40 for Leeds. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Leeds

5 matches
DWDDW
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

0.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Leeds

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Leeds

9.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Leeds

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

2.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Leeds

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Leeds

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Leeds

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Leeds

10.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

13.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

23.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

12.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Leeds

14.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Leeds

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Leeds

0.97 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Leeds

1.11 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Hull City at home × Leeds away

Hull City at home

Hull City

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
0

Leeds away

Leeds

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
1
Average goals scored

Hull City at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Leeds away

1.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Leeds away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Leeds away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Hull City at home

7.00 · 2 matches

Leeds away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Leeds away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Hull City at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Leeds away

4.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin

Forward

6.98

5 matches · 421 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

J. Bogle

Midfielder

7.05

5 matches · 369 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

T. Muharemović

Centre-back

7.27

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

A. Stach

Midfielder

7.02

5 matches · 448 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

N. Okafor

Forward

6.81

5 matches · 303 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

J. Trafford

Goalkeeper

7.22

5 matches · 450 min

20 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Zetterer

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.