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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 17

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

12 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD 0

VSNottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

68.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 68.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 68.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

36.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.03 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.01

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 83.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 36.1%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.03 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

74.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 74.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

48.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 48.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 48.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

92.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.76

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 17.84 × 10.53

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 28.37

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 84.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 92.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.76 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 17.84 × 10.53 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

25.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.29

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.07 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.89 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 48.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Nottingham Forest's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester United's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 22.60 per match for Manchester United and 16.40 for Nottingham Forest. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 3.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester United

3.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

11.00 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

2.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

4.00 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

9.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

9.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

19.40 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

22.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester United

5.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

10.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

4.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester United

3.20 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester United

1.51 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × Nottingham Forest away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
5
GA
3

Nottingham Forest away

Nottingham Forest

2 matches
WD
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

12.50 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

7.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

6.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

7.44

5 matches · 458 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

B. Mbeumo

Forward

7.08

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 15 shots on target

Matheus Cunha

Forward

6.76

5 matches · 410 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 12 shots on target

K. Mainoo

Midfielder

7.25

5 matches · 357 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

L. Shaw

Centre-back

6.77

4 matches · 336 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

7.02

5 matches · 458 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.