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Manchester City vs Hull City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 16

· LONDON TIME · Etihad Stadium · Referee: not provided

Manchester City

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

VSHull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

62.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 63.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 62.7%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

33.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 2.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.78

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 33.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 2.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

83.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 83.0%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

38.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 46.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 38.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

86.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.78

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.63 × 9.50

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.13

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 86.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.78 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.63 × 9.50 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

17.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

61.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 0.92

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1641 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.05 × 0.92

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 46.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester City recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 2.60 goals scored per match. Hull City's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester City at home with 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Hull City has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Manchester City and 11.80 for Hull City. On target, the averages are 5.40 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester City

2.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City

1.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester City

6.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester City

4.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

10.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

2.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester City

10.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

13.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester City

24.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester City

13.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester City

5.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester City

11.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester City

4.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester City

2.23 · 2 matches

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester City

0.66 · 2 matches

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester City at home × Hull City away

Manchester City at home

Manchester City

3 matches
WWW
W
3
D
0
L
0
GF
8
GA
4

Hull City away

Hull City

3 matches
LDW
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
4
Average goals scored

Manchester City at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Hull City away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Manchester City at home

10.33 · 3 matches

Hull City away

11.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester City at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Manchester City at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Hull City away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.