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Liverpool vs Tottenham: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 16

· LONDON TIME · Anfield · Referee: not provided

Liverpool

Liverpool

6 · 9 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 3 D · 0 L · GD 3

VSTottenham

Tottenham

20 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -6

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

63.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 63.8%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

38.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
41 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.05

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 99.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 38.2%, high confidence and a sample of 41 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

77.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 59.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 77.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

46.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 38.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 46.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

86.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.78

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.21 × 10.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.28

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 86.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 86.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.78 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.21 × 10.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

22.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 59.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

53.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 0.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1538 × 1424

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.78 × 1.02

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 0.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 38.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Liverpool recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Tottenham's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 0.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Liverpool at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Tottenham has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Liverpool's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Tottenham's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 15.20 per match for Liverpool and 14.40 for Tottenham. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Season

Liverpool

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
7
GA
4

Season

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Liverpool

1.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

0.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool

0.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Liverpool

4.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

7.60 · 5 matches

Average against

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

8.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

12.20 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Liverpool

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Liverpool

2.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

2.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

4.40 · 5 matches

Tottenham

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Liverpool

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Liverpool

13.00 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Liverpool

10.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

13.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Liverpool

23.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

26.80 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Liverpool

15.20 · 5 matches

Tottenham

14.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Liverpool

4.80 · 5 matches

Tottenham

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Liverpool

11.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

15.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Liverpool

3.60 · 5 matches

Tottenham

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Liverpool

2.30 · 2 matches

Tottenham

0.80 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Liverpool

1.94 · 2 matches

Tottenham

2.31 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Liverpool at home × Tottenham away

Liverpool at home

Liverpool

2 matches
DD
W
0
D
2
L
0
GF
2
GA
2

Tottenham away

Tottenham

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
0
GA
3
Average goals scored

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

0.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Liverpool at home

10.50 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

11.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Liverpool at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Tottenham away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Liverpool at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Tottenham away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Liverpool

A. Isak

Forward

7.46

5 matches · 415 min

4 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

C. Gakpo

Midfielder

7.28

5 matches · 371 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

7.07

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

6.89

5 matches · 259 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

R. Gravenberch

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 192 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

7.04

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 4 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Tottenham

J. van Hecke

Centre-back

7.02

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Robertson

Centre-back

6.64

5 matches · 367 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

M. Kudus

Midfielder

6.64

4 matches · 128 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

C. Gallagher

Midfielder

4.90

4 matches · 134 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Sávio

Forward

7.01

3 matches · 241 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

A. Kinský

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 455 min

12 saves · 5 goals conceded

M. Dúbravka

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.