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Tottenham vs Arsenal: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 14

· LONDON TIME · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Referee: not provided

Tottenham

Tottenham

20 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -6

VSArsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

86.7%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 86.7%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

41.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.26 × 2.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 41 / 40

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.26

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 92.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 41.6%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.26 × 2.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

34.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 3.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 34.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

86.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 13.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 86.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

77.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.83

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 8.85 × 15.53

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.38

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 77.8%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.83 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 8.85 × 15.53 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

65.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 3.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

13.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.68 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1424 × 1643

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 0.69 × 1.85

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 0.68 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 13.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Tottenham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 0.40 goals scored per match. Arsenal's 5-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Tottenham at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Arsenal has 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Tottenham's sample and 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.40 per match for Tottenham and 13.00 for Arsenal. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Tottenham

5 matches
LDDLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
2
GA
8

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Tottenham

0.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Tottenham

1.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Tottenham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Tottenham

7.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Tottenham

4.60 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

12.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Tottenham

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Tottenham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Tottenham

1.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Tottenham

1.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

2.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Tottenham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Tottenham

13.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Tottenham

13.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Tottenham

26.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Tottenham

14.40 · 5 matches

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Tottenham

3.80 · 5 matches

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Tottenham

15.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Tottenham

4.20 · 5 matches

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Tottenham

0.80 · 2 matches

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Tottenham

2.31 · 2 matches

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Tottenham at home × Arsenal away

Tottenham at home

Tottenham

3 matches
LDL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
2
GA
5

Arsenal away

Arsenal

3 matches
LWW
W
2
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
3
Average goals scored

Tottenham at home

0.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Tottenham at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Tottenham at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Tottenham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Tottenham at home

13.00 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

8.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Tottenham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Arsenal away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Tottenham at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Arsenal away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Tottenham

J. van Hecke

Centre-back

7.02

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Robertson

Centre-back

6.64

5 matches · 367 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

M. Kudus

Midfielder

6.64

4 matches · 128 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

C. Gallagher

Midfielder

4.90

4 matches · 134 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Sávio

Forward

7.01

3 matches · 241 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

A. Kinský

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 455 min

12 saves · 5 goals conceded

M. Dúbravka

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.