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Manchester United vs Coventry: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 14

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

12 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD 0

VSCoventry

Coventry

18 · 3 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 0 D · 4 L · GD -9

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

50.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 19.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 50.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

26.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.61

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.34

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 79.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 26.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.61 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

84.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 43.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 84.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

35.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 25.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 35.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

94.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.83

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 20.23 × 9.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 29.88

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 75.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 94.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.83 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 20.23 × 9.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

15.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 43.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

64.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 0.84

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1480

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.09 × 0.84

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 25.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Coventry's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 0.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Coventry has 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 3 matches, with 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester United's sample and 0 of 5 matches (0%) of Coventry's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 22.60 per match for Manchester United and 10.20 for Coventry. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 3.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Season

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Season

Coventry

5 matches
WLLLL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
1
GA
10

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

0.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

2.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Coventry

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.20 · 5 matches

Coventry

4.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester United

3.80 · 5 matches

Coventry

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

11.00 · 5 matches

Coventry

8.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.20 · 5 matches

Coventry

1.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

2.80 · 5 matches

Coventry

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

4.00 · 5 matches

Coventry

2.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Coventry

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Coventry

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Coventry

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

9.80 · 5 matches

Coventry

12.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

9.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

10.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

19.40 · 5 matches

Coventry

22.40 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

22.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

10.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester United

5.80 · 5 matches

Coventry

3.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

10.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

17.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

4.60 · 5 matches

Coventry

4.40 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester United

3.20 · 2 matches

Coventry

0.74 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester United

1.51 · 2 matches

Coventry

1.30 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × Coventry away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
5
GA
3

Coventry away

Coventry

3 matches
WLL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
1
GA
4
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Coventry away

0.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Coventry away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Coventry away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Coventry away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Coventry away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Coventry away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Coventry away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Coventry away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Coventry away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

12.50 · 2 matches

Coventry away

9.00 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Coventry away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Coventry away

2.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

7.44

5 matches · 458 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

B. Mbeumo

Forward

7.08

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 15 shots on target

Matheus Cunha

Forward

6.76

5 matches · 410 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 12 shots on target

K. Mainoo

Midfielder

7.25

5 matches · 357 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

L. Shaw

Centre-back

6.77

4 matches · 336 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

7.02

5 matches · 458 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Coventry

J. Dasilva

Midfielder

6.68

5 matches · 451 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

B. Thomas

Centre-back

6.80

5 matches · 438 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 10 shots on target

A. Amenda

Centre-back

6.54

4 matches · 366 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Grimes

Midfielder

6.54

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

J. Rudoni

Midfielder

6.47

5 matches · 301 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

C. Rushworth

Goalkeeper

6.43

5 matches · 456 min

9 saves · 4 goals conceded

D. Bentley

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.