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Bournemouth vs Hull City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 14

· LONDON TIME · Vitality Stadium · Referee: not provided

Bournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

VSHull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

41.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.85 × 2.32

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.17

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 89.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 41.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.85 × 2.32 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

64.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 64.7%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

62.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 62.5%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

82.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.83

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.01 × 11.21

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.22

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 99.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 82.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.83 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.01 × 11.21 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

35.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

27.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 52.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

37.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 1.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Bournemouth recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Hull City's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bournemouth at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Hull City has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Bournemouth and 11.80 for Hull City. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Bournemouth at home × Hull City away

Bournemouth at home

Bournemouth

3 matches
LDD
W
0
D
2
L
1
GF
3
GA
4

Hull City away

Hull City

3 matches
LDW
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
4
Average goals scored

Bournemouth at home

1.00 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Hull City away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Bournemouth at home

8.67 · 3 matches

Hull City away

11.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Bournemouth at home

4.67 · 3 matches

Hull City away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.