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Hull City vs Nottingham Forest: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 13

· LONDON TIME · MKM Stadium · Referee: not provided

Hull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

VSNottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

13 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 79.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

39.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.65 × 1.53

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.18

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 82

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 39.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.65 × 1.53 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

68.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 68.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

59.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 59.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

85.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.84

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.17 × 12.62

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.79

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 85.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.84 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.17 × 12.62 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

31.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

27.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

40.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1472

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Hull City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Nottingham Forest's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Hull City at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Nottingham Forest has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Nottingham Forest's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Hull City and 16.40 for Nottingham Forest. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 3.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Nottingham Forest

5 matches
LWDDL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

8.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

2.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

15.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

12.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

27.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

16.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

10.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Nottingham Forest

3.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.48 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest

1.04 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Hull City at home × Nottingham Forest away

Hull City at home

Hull City

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
0

Nottingham Forest away

Nottingham Forest

2 matches
WD
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

Hull City at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Hull City at home

7.00 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

7.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total card average

Hull City at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Nottingham Forest away

6.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White

Midfielder

7.15

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

Murillo

Centre-back

6.94

5 matches · 448 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

L. Delap

Forward

6.78

4 matches · 277 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 11 shots on target

Igor Jesus

Forward

6.77

5 matches · 256 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

D. Ndoye

Midfielder

6.67

5 matches · 321 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 11 shots on target

M. Sels

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

John

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.