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Bournemouth vs Brighton: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 13

· LONDON TIME · Vitality Stadium · Referee: not provided

Bournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

VSBrighton

Brighton

3 · 10 pts · 5 P · 3 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 11

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

79.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 79.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

42.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.29 × 1.96

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.26

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 42.1%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.29 × 1.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

58.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 43.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 58.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

66.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 66.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

85.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.84

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.17 × 12.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 25.91

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 85.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.84 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.17 × 12.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

42.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 43.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

33.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1528 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.56 × 1.50

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Bournemouth recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Brighton's 5-match sample contains 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bournemouth at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Brighton has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 4.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Brighton's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.60 per match for Bournemouth and 19.00 for Brighton. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 5.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

3.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Brighton

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

5.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Brighton

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

10.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Brighton

2.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Brighton

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Brighton

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Brighton

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Brighton

23.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Brighton

19.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

5.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Brighton

3.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Brighton

2.67 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Brighton

1.63 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Bournemouth at home × Brighton away

Bournemouth at home

Bournemouth

3 matches
LDD
W
0
D
2
L
1
GF
3
GA
4

Brighton away

Brighton

2 matches
WL
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4
Average goals scored

Bournemouth at home

1.00 · 3 matches

Brighton away

4.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Bournemouth at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Brighton away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Bournemouth at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Bournemouth at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Bournemouth at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Brighton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Bournemouth at home

8.67 · 3 matches

Brighton away

9.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bournemouth at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Bournemouth at home

4.67 · 3 matches

Brighton away

2.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Brighton

P. Groß

Midfielder

7.68

5 matches · 450 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

M. De Cuyper

Centre-back

7.14

5 matches · 425 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

C. Kostoulas

Forward

7.03

5 matches · 356 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

J. Hinshelwood

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

M. Yalcouyé

Midfielder

7.22

5 matches · 243 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

B. Verbruggen

Goalkeeper

6.83

5 matches · 450 min

12 saves · 4 goals conceded

J. Steele

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.