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Fulham vs Bournemouth: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 12

· LONDON TIME · Craven Cottage · Referee: not provided

Fulham

Fulham

19 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -3

VSBournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

80.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 80.6%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

37.1%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 2.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.99

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 37.1%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 2.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

56.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 41.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 56.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

68.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 68.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

89.6%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.85

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.65 × 14.59

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.24

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 87.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 89.6%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.85 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.65 × 14.59 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

43.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 41.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 61.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

31.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.32 × 1.63

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.41 × 1.65

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.35 × 1.63

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Fulham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Bournemouth's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Fulham at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Bournemouth has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Fulham's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for Fulham and 13.60 for Bournemouth. On target, the averages are 4.40 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Fulham

1.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Fulham

1.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Fulham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Fulham

5.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Fulham

5.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

10.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Fulham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Fulham

1.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Fulham

0.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

2.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Fulham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Fulham

10.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Fulham

8.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

18.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Fulham

14.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Fulham

4.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Fulham

16.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Fulham

4.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Fulham

1.06 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Fulham

2.00 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Fulham at home × Bournemouth away

Fulham at home

Fulham

3 matches
DLL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
7

Bournemouth away

Bournemouth

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Fulham at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Fulham at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Fulham at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Fulham at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Fulham at home

11.33 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Fulham at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Bournemouth away

4.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Fulham

Joshua King

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 427 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

Gonzalo García

Forward

6.63

5 matches · 427 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 10 shots on target

T. Castagne

Centre-back

6.34

5 matches · 410 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

César Palacios

Midfielder

5.40

5 matches · 231 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

Jorge Cuenca

Centre-back

7.20

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Leno

Goalkeeper

6.48

5 matches · 450 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

B. Lecomte

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.