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Arsenal vs Manchester City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 12

· LONDON TIME · Emirates Stadium · Referee: not provided

Arsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

VSManchester City

Manchester City

1 · 15 pts · 5 P · 5 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 8

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

73.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 40.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 73.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

30.2%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 2.10

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 41

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.61

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 30.2%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 2.10 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

68.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 68.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

58.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 58.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

72.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.85

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.22 × 10.97

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 23.19

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 73.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 72.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.85 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.22 × 10.97 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

31.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 93.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

41.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 1.18

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1641

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.42 × 1.13

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.38 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Arsenal recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Manchester City's 5-match sample contains 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 2.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Arsenal at home with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester City has 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's sample and 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.00 per match for Arsenal and 13.60 for Manchester City. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 5.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Manchester City

5 matches
WWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
0
GF
13
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

2.60 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Manchester City

6.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Manchester City

4.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Manchester City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

1.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

2.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Manchester City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Manchester City

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Manchester City

10.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Manchester City

13.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

24.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Manchester City

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

5.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Manchester City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Manchester City

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Manchester City

2.23 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Manchester City

0.66 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Arsenal at home × Manchester City away

Arsenal at home

Arsenal

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
1

Manchester City away

Manchester City

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
1
Average goals scored

Arsenal at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Manchester City away

2.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal at home

0.50 · 2 matches

Manchester City away

0.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Arsenal at home

9.00 · 2 matches

Manchester City away

10.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Arsenal at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Manchester City away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

7.71

5 matches · 450 min

5 goals · 0 assists · 10 of 19 shots on target

R. Cherki

Midfielder

7.57

5 matches · 305 min

3 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

A. Semenyo

Midfielder

7.21

5 matches · 450 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

J. Gvardiol

Centre-back

6.87

5 matches · 435 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Guéhi

Centre-back

7.24

5 matches · 450 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.92

5 matches · 450 min

14 saves · 2 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.