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Hull City vs Brighton: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 11

· LONDON TIME · MKM Stadium · Referee: not provided

Hull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

VSBrighton

Brighton

3 · 10 pts · 5 P · 3 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 11

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

76.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 76.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

38.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.33 × 1.69

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.03

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 83.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 38.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.33 × 1.69 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

60.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 60.1%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

66.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 66.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

87.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.88

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.06 × 14.53

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.59

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 83.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 87.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.88 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.06 × 14.53 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

39.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

33.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.26 × 1.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.26 × 1.40

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Hull City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Brighton's 5-match sample contains 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Hull City at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Brighton has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 4.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Brighton's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Hull City and 19.00 for Brighton. On target, the averages are 3.80 and 5.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Brighton

5 matches
WWDLW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

3.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Brighton

5.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Brighton

10.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Brighton

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

2.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Brighton

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Brighton

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Brighton

13.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

23.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

19.00 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

5.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Brighton

11.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Brighton

3.80 · 5 matches

Average xG

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Brighton

2.67 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Brighton

1.63 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Hull City at home × Brighton away

Hull City at home

Hull City

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
2
GA
0

Brighton away

Brighton

2 matches
WL
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4
Average goals scored

Hull City at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Brighton away

4.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Hull City at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Brighton away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Brighton away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Hull City at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Hull City at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Brighton away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Hull City at home

7.00 · 2 matches

Brighton away

9.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Hull City at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Brighton away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Hull City at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Brighton away

2.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Brighton

P. Groß

Midfielder

7.68

5 matches · 450 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

M. De Cuyper

Centre-back

7.14

5 matches · 425 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

C. Kostoulas

Forward

7.03

5 matches · 356 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

J. Hinshelwood

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

M. Yalcouyé

Midfielder

7.22

5 matches · 243 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

B. Verbruggen

Goalkeeper

6.83

5 matches · 450 min

12 saves · 4 goals conceded

J. Steele

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.