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Sunderland vs Chelsea: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 10

· LONDON TIME · Stadium of Light · Referee: not provided

Sunderland

Sunderland

14 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -4

VSChelsea

Chelsea

10 · 7 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 1 D · 2 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.9%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

53.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.48 × 2.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.97

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 76.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 53.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.48 × 2.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

58.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 58.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

67.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 60.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 67.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

79.5%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 11.47 × 12.91

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.38

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 79.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 79.5%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 11.47 × 12.91 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

41.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

32.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.34 × 1.46

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1496 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.17 × 1.57

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.29 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 60.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Sunderland recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and averaged 1.20 goals scored per match. Chelsea's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Sunderland at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Chelsea has 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 3 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Sunderland's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Chelsea's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 5 of 5 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.20 per match for Sunderland and 14.40 for Chelsea. On target, the averages are 5.00 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Last 5

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Season

Sunderland

5 matches
LLDWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Season

Chelsea

5 matches
LDLWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
10
GA
12

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Sunderland

1.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

2.00 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Sunderland

2.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

2.40 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Sunderland

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Sunderland

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

6.80 · 5 matches

Average against

Sunderland

4.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

5.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Sunderland

8.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

12.00 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Chelsea

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Sunderland

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Chelsea

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Sunderland

2.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

1.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Sunderland

1.40 · 5 matches

Chelsea

2.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Sunderland

3.60 · 5 matches

Chelsea

4.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Sunderland

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Chelsea

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Sunderland

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Chelsea

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Sunderland

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Chelsea

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Sunderland

13.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

8.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Sunderland

14.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

11.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Sunderland

27.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

20.40 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Sunderland

13.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

14.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Sunderland

5.00 · 5 matches

Chelsea

5.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Sunderland

11.60 · 5 matches

Chelsea

14.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Sunderland

3.20 · 5 matches

Chelsea

6.40 · 5 matches

Average xG

Sunderland

1.21 · 2 matches

Chelsea

2.61 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Sunderland

1.30 · 2 matches

Chelsea

1.45 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Sunderland at home × Chelsea away

Sunderland at home

Sunderland

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
2

Chelsea away

Chelsea

3 matches
LLW
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
7
Average goals scored

Sunderland at home

0.50 · 2 matches

Chelsea away

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Sunderland at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Chelsea away

2.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Sunderland at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Sunderland at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Sunderland at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Sunderland at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Sunderland at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Sunderland at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Sunderland at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Sunderland at home

7.00 · 2 matches

Chelsea away

11.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Sunderland at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Chelsea away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Sunderland at home

4.50 · 2 matches

Chelsea away

4.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Sunderland

B. Brobbey

Forward

7.02

5 matches · 401 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

E. Le Fée

Midfielder

6.79

5 matches · 439 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

N. Angulo

Midfielder

6.52

5 matches · 318 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

H. Diarra

Midfielder

6.75

2 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Meunier

Midfielder

6.66

5 matches · 399 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

R. Roefs

Goalkeeper

6.16

5 matches · 450 min

6 saves · 2 goals conceded

M. Ellborg

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Chelsea

João Pedro

Forward

7.53

4 matches · 360 min

3 goals · 3 assists · 4 of 8 shots on target

M. Rogers

Midfielder

7.55

5 matches · 439 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

C. Palmer

Midfielder

7.42

5 matches · 443 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 14 shots on target

J. Hato

Centre-back

5.26

5 matches · 260 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pedro Neto

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 336 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

E. Martínez

Goalkeeper

6.72

4 matches · 360 min

18 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Penders

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.