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Manchester United vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 10

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

12 · 5 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 2 D · 2 L · GD 0

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

16 · 4 pts · 5 P · 1 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.0%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.0%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

33.9%

high
View full analysis
Sample
42 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.05 × 1.78

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 42 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.83

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 98

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 33.9%, high confidence and a sample of 42 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.05 × 1.78 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

76.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 76.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

45.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 54.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 45.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

93.4%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 18.88 × 10.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 29.26

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 74.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 93.4%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 18.88 × 10.38 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

23.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 83.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

54.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.97 × 1.26

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1575 × 1521

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 2.12 × 1.14

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 2.01 × 1.23

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 54.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 5-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 0.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Manchester United's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 22.60 per match for Manchester United and 9.60 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 5.80 and 2.40, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Last 5

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Last 5

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Season

Manchester United

5 matches
DLDWL
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
8

Season

Aston Villa

5 matches
WLDLL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
4
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

0.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

1.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 5 matches

Average against

Manchester United

3.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

11.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

7.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

2.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

4.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

9.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

11.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

9.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

10.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Manchester United

19.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

22.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

22.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

9.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester United

5.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

2.40 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

10.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

16.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

4.60 · 5 matches

Aston Villa

5.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Manchester United

3.20 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

0.30 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Manchester United

1.51 · 2 matches

Aston Villa

2.41 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × Aston Villa away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
5
GA
3

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

3 matches
WDL
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
6
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

1.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

12.50 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

8.67 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Aston Villa away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Aston Villa away

3.67 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

7.44

5 matches · 458 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

B. Mbeumo

Forward

7.08

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 15 shots on target

Matheus Cunha

Forward

6.76

5 matches · 410 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 12 shots on target

K. Mainoo

Midfielder

7.25

5 matches · 357 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

L. Shaw

Centre-back

6.77

4 matches · 336 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

7.02

5 matches · 458 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

J. Manzambi

Midfielder

7.44

2 matches · 99 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

6.62

5 matches · 446 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

6.87

4 matches · 289 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 8 shots on target

Alysson Edward

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 97 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

B. Kamara

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 454 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.19

4 matches · 370 min

15 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

2.17

3 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 4 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.